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Runoff prediction is essential in water resource management, environmental protection, and agricultural development. Due to the large randomness, high non-stationarity, and low prediction accuracy of nonlinear effects of the traditional model, this study proposes a runoff prediction model based on the improved vector weighted average algorithm (INFO) to optimize the convolutional neural network (CNN)-bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM)-Attention mechanism. First, the historical data are analyzed and normalized. Secondly, CNN combined with Attention is used to extract the depth local features of the input data and optimize the input weights of Bi-LSTM. Then, Bi-LSTM is used to study the time series feature depth analysis data from both positive and negative directions simultaneously. The INFO parameters are optimized to provide the optimal parameter guarantee for the CNN-Bi-LSTM-Attention model. Based on a hydrology station’s water level and flow data, the influence of three main models and two optimization algorithms on the prediction accuracy of the CNN-Bi-LSTM-Attention model is compared and analyzed. The results show that the fitting coefficient, R2, of the proposed model is 0.948, which is 7.91% and 3.38% higher than that of Bi-LSTM and CNN-Bi-LSTM, respectively. The R2 of the vector-weighted average optimization algorithm (INFO) optimization model is 0.993, which is 0.61% higher than that of the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA), indicating that the method adopted in this paper has more significant forecasting ability and can be used as a reliable tool for long-term runoff prediction.
Runoff prediction is essential in water resource management, environmental protection, and agricultural development. Due to the large randomness, high non-stationarity, and low prediction accuracy of nonlinear effects of the traditional model, this study proposes a runoff prediction model based on the improved vector weighted average algorithm (INFO) to optimize the convolutional neural network (CNN)-bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM)-Attention mechanism. First, the historical data are analyzed and normalized. Secondly, CNN combined with Attention is used to extract the depth local features of the input data and optimize the input weights of Bi-LSTM. Then, Bi-LSTM is used to study the time series feature depth analysis data from both positive and negative directions simultaneously. The INFO parameters are optimized to provide the optimal parameter guarantee for the CNN-Bi-LSTM-Attention model. Based on a hydrology station’s water level and flow data, the influence of three main models and two optimization algorithms on the prediction accuracy of the CNN-Bi-LSTM-Attention model is compared and analyzed. The results show that the fitting coefficient, R2, of the proposed model is 0.948, which is 7.91% and 3.38% higher than that of Bi-LSTM and CNN-Bi-LSTM, respectively. The R2 of the vector-weighted average optimization algorithm (INFO) optimization model is 0.993, which is 0.61% higher than that of the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA), indicating that the method adopted in this paper has more significant forecasting ability and can be used as a reliable tool for long-term runoff prediction.
This study aimed to enhance flood forecasting accuracy in the Liangfeng River basin, a small karst watershed in Southern China, by incorporating the Available Reservoir Capacity of Karst (ARCK) into the HEC-HMS model. This region is often threatened by floods during the rainy season, so an accurate flood forecast can help decision-makers better manage rivers. As a crucial influencing factor on karstic runoff, ARCK is often overlooked in hydrological models. The seasonal and volatile nature of ARCK makes the direct computation of its specific values challenging. In this study, a virtual reservoir for each sub-basin (total of 17) was introduced into the model to simulate the storage and release of ARCK-induced runoff phenomena. Simulations via the enhanced model for rainfall events with significant fluctuations in water levels during 2021–2022 revealed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of the average simulation accuracy was improved by more than 34%. Normally, rainfalls (even heavy precipitations) during the dry season either do not generate runoff or cause negligible fluctuations in flow rates due to long intervals. Conversely, relatively frequent rainfall events (even light ones) during the wet season result in substantial runoff. Based on this observation, three distinct types of karstic reservoirs with different retaining/releasing capacities were defined, reflecting variations in both the frequency and volume of runoff during both seasons. As a real-time environmental variable, ARCK exhibits higher and lower values during the dry and rainy seasons, respectively, and we can better avoid the risk of flooding according to its special effects.
Hydrological models serve as essential tools in hydrological research, allowing us to address practical hydrological issues. This study focuses on the Xunhe Watershed in Shandong Province, China, constructing a distributed Xin’anjiang hydrological model. Furthermore, traditional manual calibration and automatic calibration using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm were employed to determine model parameters, followed by hydrological simulations, with the aim of investigating the applicability of the distributed Xin’anjiang model in this watershed. The research findings indicate that the distributed Xin’anjiang model accurately simulates the hydrological processes in the Xunhe Watershed. There is a high level of agreement between the observed data and the simulated results, including key indicators such as peak discharge, runoff volume, and peak time. After optimizing the model parameters using the PSO algorithm, the distributed Xin’anjiang model demonstrates improved simulation performance in the Xunhe Watershed. During the calibration period, the mean relative peak discharge error (RPE) is 4.1%, the mean relative runoff error (RRE) is 4.34%, and the average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for simulating the flood events is 0.89. During the validation period, the mean RPE is 3.82%, the mean RRE is 6.1%, and the average NSE for the process is 0.83. This indicates that the distributed Xin’anjiang model has good applicability in this watershed, providing a reliable reference for flood control and disaster reduction in the Xunhe Watershed.
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