Application of fuzzy bow-tie risk analysis to maritime transportation: The case of ship collision during the STS operation

Temporal features of non-accident critical events impact from tides around the Yangtze Estuary and adjacent coastal waters

“…The statistics reported show that environmental conditions have weak effects as accident factors (Bakdi et al., 2019), but some studies found that environmental conditions are essential factors in the navigational risk model (Zhang et al., 2013; Bye and Aalberg, 2018). Indirectly, incorrect assessment of current and tide effects is a significant reason for the collision (Arici et al., 2020). The influence of tides on NACEs should be worthy of attention, because the tidal change makes the navigational environment complicated.…”

Deficiency Analysis Identified in PSC Inspections Using Event Tree Analysis

“…Therefore, ETA method is widely used in safety critical industries such as chemical and nuclear industries [18], [19]. From the perspective of the maritime industry, there are some studies utilizing ETA for risk assessment such as ship collision [20], marine accident [21], mooring operation [22], and marine pollution [23]. Different from these studies, we use ETA to analyse the PSC inspections data to obtain precious findings for the improvement of PSC efficiency.…”

Data analysis in the maritime domain

“…Fault Tree Analysis Graphical, deductive technique for identification and analysis of risk; it starts from an undesired event and shows logical relationships between equipment failures, human errors and external events which might cause a specific event; applicable for almost every type of analysis, mostly used to address the fundamental causes of specific system failures; often used for complex electronic, control and communication systems (ABS, 2020;Arici, Akyuz, & Arslan, 2020;Berle, Asbjørnslett, & Rice, 2011;Cem Kuzu, Akyuz, & Arslan, 2019) Event Tree Analysis Graphical, deductive technique for identification and analysis of risk; it analyzes possible outcomes of an initiating event, capable of producing a mishap; applicable for almost every type of analysis, mostly used to address possible outcomes of an initiating event; often used for analysis of vessel movement mishaps and propagation of fire/explosion (ABS, 2020;Arici, Akyuz, & Arslan, 2020;Berle, Asbjørnslett, & Rice, 2011;Ellis et al, 2008;Endrina, Rasero, & Konovessis, 2018;Hahn, 2014) Root cause analysis Set of analysis tools, such as Event charting, 5 Whys technique, Root Cause Map, used to systematically discover how a mishap has occurred and the underlying root causes of the key contributors; applicable to any type of risk (ABS, 2020) Risk matrix Method used to rank the risk criticality of the failure modes; each risk scenario is evaluated taking into account its likelihood and consequences using a matrix;…”

“…Bayesian Networks Graph-based technique, where nodes are risk variables with defined probabilities; these probabilities can depend on other node(s), through connections made by arcs; used for probability estimation of various risk scenarios, often in the causation analysis (Berle, Asbjørnslett, & Rice, 2011;Gyftakis et al, 2018;Trucco, Cagno, Ruggeri, & Grande, 2008;Tu, Zhang, Rachmawati, Rajabally, & Huang, 2017;Wan, Yan, Zhang, Qu, & Yang, 2019a) Fuzzy Logic, IF-THEN rules Fuzziness is a type of deterministic uncertainty that describes the event class ambiguity (i.e., outcomes that belong to several event classes at the same time but to different degrees); it measures the degree to which an event occurs, not whether it occurs; used when there exists an uncertainty for a risk factor (factor is vague, ambiguous, or fuzzy) and thus cannot be represented precisely by a probability distribution; allows for incorporation of human factors in risk analysis; often used with if-then rules which map probability, consequences and risk value (Arici, Akyuz, & Arslan, 2020;Balmat, Lafont, Maifret, & Pessel, 2009;Eleye-Datubo, Wall, & Wang, 2008;Elsayed, 2009;Gaonkar et al, 2011;J. Liu, Yang, Wang, & Sii, 2005;Markowski, Mannan, & Bigoszewska, 2009;Tu, Zhang, Rachmawati, Rajabally, & Huang, 2017;Wan, Yan, Zhang...…”