Application of Geographic Information Systems in Impact Evaluation and Geospatial Portfolio Analysis of Transport Projects

Abstract

New technologies and global datasets enable transport projects to be assessed more effectively and efficiently. Geospatial data are available retrospectively and remotely, which is particularly useful for evaluators working in countries with constraints on their access to data, including those caused by COVID-19 pandemic. Another advantage is that data quality is the same and comparable across countries. This paper reports the results of geospatial portfolio analysis and economic impact analysis with geospatial data. It generated several interesting findings. For example, the contribution of projects carried out by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) became visible, as about 290 million people live along the road alignments of ADB projects and are therefore potential beneficiaries. Their presence and greater economic activity are indicated by increases in the radiance of nighttime light. The data also demonstrated which countries need to make additional efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from the project areas. Two levels of impact analysis using nighttime light were carried out, which measured local benefits of economic growth. The first assessed a national highway project in Armenia. The contribution of the project to economic growth was more than 2.5% per year. The second found that 33 transportation projects had made an average annual contribution to economic growth of 5%. The authors compared the impact assessed by nighttime light with conventional economic analysis using economic internal rates of return, measuring benefits enjoyed by road users and administrators, and observed a positive correlation between the two.