Application of LEAP model on long-term electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia, period 2010-2025

Abstract

Electricity demand forecasting is an important part in energy management especially in electricity planning. Indonesia is a large country with a pattern of electricity consumption which continues to increase, therefor need to forecasting electricity demand in order to avoid unbalance demand and supply or deficit energy. LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) as a tool energy model and Indonesia as a case study. Basically, electricity demand is influenced by population, economy and electricity intensity. The purpose of this study is to provide understanding and application of electricity demand forecasting by using LEAP. The base year is 2010 and end year projection is 2025. The scenarios of simulated model consist of two scenarios. They are Business as Usual (BAU) and Government policy scenario. Results of both scenarios indicate that end year electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia increased more than two fold compared to base year.

Pemodelan Proyeksi Supply and Demand Energi di Kota Semarang Tahun 2020-2030 Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak Low-Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP)

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“…The technology in question is for the purposes of building functions, both the business sector, the industrial sector, the building sector, and offices. In addition, the household sector includes electric motors, lighting lamps, AHU (Air Handling Unit) or HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning), computers, and others [2].…”