Application of Markov Theoretical Model in Predicting Risk Severity and Exposure Levels of Workers in the Oil and Gas Sector

Abstract

In this research, Markov theoretical approach (MTA) was used to forecast the severity of risk workers were exposed to in the oil and gas industry and to determine the average period of time it would take workers to get exposed to menace of less severity and the possibility of transiting to a state where risk is high. The perils were classified into four states which include: catastrophic, critical, marginal and negligible. A solution procedure for addressing industrial hazards was developed from Markov. Fifty (50) workers in Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC) were randomly selected for the purpose of questionnaire administration. Analysis of the data was carried out using QM software. The results showed that 56.66% of workers in marginal state would likely move to catastrophic state, while 43.34% of workers in marginal state would probably transit to critical state. Also 41.32% of workers in negligible state would move to a catastrophic state, while 58.68% of workers in negligible state would likely move to critical state within an average period of 2 to 3 years. It is therefore recommended that provision of personal protective equipment and appropriate healthcare facilities be made, risk assessment of all workers be continuously carried out; workers must be properly trained on regular basis and the enforcement and strengthening of existing legislation effectively carried out to dispel these hazards.