Application of Models to Conservation Planning for Terrestrial Birds in North America

Fitzgerald, Jane A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Dettmers, Randy; Jones, Tim; Rustay, Christopher; Ruth, Janet M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Will, Tom

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-373631-4.00022-8

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Although developing multiple models may mean more work, lengthen the conservation planning process, and slow initial progress, it will reduce uncertainty thereby helping us make more effective progress. Conservation action occurs at the intersection of programmatic opportunities, habitat suitability, and land use opportunities (J. L. Burger, Jr., and R. Hamrick, oral presentation, summarized in Thogmartin et al 2009). We need to minimize uncertainty on the habitat side of this equation to the greatest extent possible so that we may be strategic about the opportunities we seize.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Jones-Farrand

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et al. 2011

Ecological Applications

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Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Jones-Farrand

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Thogmartin³

et al. 2011

Ecological Applications

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“…Integrated or "all bird" conservation efforts being implemented through Joint Ventures (see the following section) have realized this, and some are working to develop more realistic population targets (Fitzgerald et al 2009). With the combined effects of human-caused habitat conversion and global climate change, a plan for the future must at least acknowledge the possible dynamics of habitat change and movement and do as much as possible to provide suitable habitat for the bird species found across the continent.…”

Section: Global Climate Change and The Pif Conservation Planmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many Joint Ventures are using spatial models to evaluate current distributions of birds and predicted distributions under various management scenarios (Fitzgerald et al 2009). These models often incorporate many of the concepts we reviewed in this paper; however, as in any modeling exercise, they also highlight our knowledge gaps and often require strong assumptions and expert opinion.…”

Section: Is Our Science Sufficient To Guide Conservation Efforts For mentioning

confidence: 99%

Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?

Faaborg

Holmes

Anders³

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas.Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds.The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk. Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth, acid deposition, climate change, and exotic diseases are global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even lesscertain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds, research, much of it occurring in the past 30 years, has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges.

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“…A relatively new approach to avian habitat studies is to examine environmental influences beyond the landscape scale at a more regional level encompassing one or more Bird Conservation Regions (Fitzgerald et al 2008). Bird Conservation Regions have been identified as ecologically unique areas with similar avian communities, and are used to foster a large-scale approach to bird conservation and management (NABCI 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Application of Models to Conservation Planning for Terrestrial Birds in North America

Cited by 12 publications

References 28 publications

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?

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