Application of multiple‐population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Neville, Helen M.; Leasure, Douglas R.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Dunham, Jason B.; Bjork, Robin; Fesenmyer, Kurt A.; Chelgren, Nathan D.; Peacock, Mary M.; Luce, Charles H.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Carranza, Lee Ann; Sjöberg, Jon; Wenger, Seth J.

doi:10.1111/cobi.13385

Cited by 8 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…In contrast to most other studies analyzing the entire metapopulation as a single population, we investigated the Swedish-Danish subpopulations of harbors seals as a metapopulation. The application of multiple-population viability analysis to assess the extinction risk of metapopulations is a useful tool that can guide management and conservation strategies (Neville et al 2020).…”

Section: Multistressor Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk for overexploiting a seemingly stable seal population: influence of multiple stressors and hunting

Silva

Bottagisio

Härkönen³

et al. 2021

Ecosphere

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Conservation efforts have mainly been focused on depleted species or populations, but many formerly reduced marine mammal populations have recovered to historical abundances. This calls for new management strategies and new models for ecological risk assessment that incorporate local density dependence and multiple environmental stressors. The harbor seal metapopulation in Swedish and Danish waters has increased from about 2500 to 25,000 over the past 40 yr. Trend analysis based on aerial survey data and somatic growth curves indicates that the population is close to carrying capacity. We performed a population viability analysis based on realistic life history parameters and investigated a range of potential scenarios caused by future stressors. If the population is able to resume its high intrinsic rate of increase at about 11% annually, when pushed down below carrying capacity, it can also sustain additional mortality such as modest hunting and infrequent epizootics. However, if xenobiotics will cause even a slight reduction in average fecundity, the population becomes significantly more vulnerable. In the absence of epizootics, and given full reproductive capacity, hunting of a few hundred animals annually is not harmful to the long-term persistence of the population. Nevertheless, a slight decrease in growth potential, for example, caused by exposure to endocrine disruptors, makes even limited hunting risky. Our study shows how an apparently stable and abundant marine mammal population can be close to a point of rapid population decline. Thus, careful monitoring of population size, growth rate, health, and exposure to xenobiotics as well as recording of the age and sex structure of the hunt is required to avoid repeating the history of overexploitation and another population collapse.

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Section: Multistressor Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk for overexploiting a seemingly stable seal population: influence of multiple stressors and hunting

Silva

Bottagisio

Härkönen³

et al. 2021

Ecosphere

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“…Effective population sizes were interpreted cautiously due to reliance on small and multicohort samples, as we discuss, but provide a standing gage of genetic health and evolutionary potential for LCT. We were also able to test for genetic erosion (Carroll et al, 2018;Hoban et al, 2014; We next looked for concordance between metrics of genetic diversity and demographically derived estimates of abundance and 30-year extinction risk from a comprehensive, range-wide Multiple Population Viability Analysis (MPVA) recently applied across LCT stream populations (Neville et al, 2019). Population Viability Analysis is a class of modeling approaches used to estimate population trajectories and extinction risks over given time frames (Beissinger & McCullough, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As well, given the isolated nature and volatile dynamics of LCT populations in particular (Platts & Nelson, 1988) and several extreme periods of drought within the time frame encompassing our temporal samples, we anticipated evidence of genetic erosion (Leroy et al, 2018), or loss of diversity over time. Finally, as observations from MPVA demonstrated a broad range of demographically derived estimates of abundance and extinction probability across LCT populations (Neville et al, 2019), we hypothesized populations with higher genetic diversity would have higher estimated abundance and lower 30-year extinction probabilities. Our study provides an unusual ability to evaluate correlations between genetic and demographic metrics across the range of a threatened species and confirms both the promise and complexities of realworld genomic assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population genomic monitoring provides insight into conservation status but no correlation with demographic estimates of extinction risk in a threatened trout

Hemstrom

Dauwalter

Peacock

et al. 2022

Evolutionary Applications

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The current extinction crisis requires effective assessment and monitoring tools. Genetic approaches are appealing given the relative ease of field sampling required to estimate genetic diversity characteristics assumed related to population size, evolutionary potential, and extinction risk, and to evaluate hybridization with non‐native species simultaneously. However, linkages between population genetic metrics of diversity from survey‐style field collections and demographic estimates of population size and extinction risk are still in need of empirical examples, especially for remotely distributed species of conservation concern where the approach might be most beneficial. We capitalized on an exceptional opportunity to evaluate congruence between genetic diversity metrics and demographic‐based estimates of abundance and extinction risk from a comprehensive Multiple Population Viability Analysis (MPVA) in a threatened fish, the Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT). We sequenced non‐native trout reference samples and recently collected and archived tissue samples of most remaining populations of LCT (N = 60) and estimated common genetic assessment metrics, predicting minimal hybridization with non‐native trout, low diversity, and declining diversity over time. We further hypothesized genetic metrics would correlate positively with MPVA‐estimated abundance and negatively with extinction probability. We uncovered several instances of hybridization that pointed to immediate management needs. After removing hybridized individuals, cautious interpretation of low effective population sizes (2–63) suggested reduced evolutionary potential for many LCT populations. Other genetic metrics did not decline over time nor correlate with MPVA‐based estimates of harmonic mean abundance or 30‐year extinction probability. Our results demonstrate benefits of genetic monitoring for efficiently detecting hybridization and, though genetic results were disconnected from demographic assessment of conservation status, they suggest reduced evolutionary potential and likely a higher conservation risk than currently recognized for this threatened fish. We emphasize that genetic information provides essential complementary insight, in addition to demographic information, for evaluating species status.

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“…1996; Foley and Foley, 2016) but only recently has this involved estimating uncertainty in the amount of year‐to‐year variation (e.g. Neville et al., 2020). As with any population parameter, estimating temporal variation ideally involves simultaneously quantifying uncertainty around that estimate and propagating that uncertainty into population predictions (Ellner et al., 2002; Wade, 2002; Schaub and Abadi, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Neville et al. (2020) present a valuable approach whereby population specific estimates of temporal variation in Lahontan cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi abundance are used to generate a global (multipopulation) distribution of this parameter that was incorporated in predictions for reintroductions of the species to unoccupied streams. However, no attempt has yet been made to use data from other populations to estimate temporal variation in vital rates for a new or newly monitored population of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating data‐based estimates of temporal variation into projections for newly monitored populations

Parlato

Ewen

McCready

et al. 2021

Animal Conservation

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The importance of accounting for temporal variation in vital rates when modelling population dynamics is well recognized. However, long‐term (usually >5 years) datasets are needed to estimate this variation. Consequently, models for newly monitored populations typically assume no temporal variation or use default values provided in software programmes, both of which can give misleading inferences about population dynamics. The goal of this study is to improve estimation of dynamics in the initial years of conservation programmes by incorporating data‐based estimates of temporal variation from other populations with longer‐term data available. We show how data‐derived priors can be generated using estimates of temporal variation in vital rates from other populations, providing information about expected variation until sufficient population‐specific data are available. We specifically evaluated whether data‐derived priors improved our ability to estimate temporal variation for a reintroduced population monitored for 3 years postrelease. We first predicted population growth and probability of extinction assuming no temporal variation in vital rates, then compared projections to those obtained when temporal variation was estimated with uniform priors or with the data‐derived priors. Both types of priors were constrained to plausible ranges, and we also assessed sensitivity of model outputs to widening those ranges. Median projected population size was similar under all three models, but extinction probability was higher with inclusion of temporal variability, reiterating the importance of incorporating this source of uncertainty. Projections with temporal variation were similar irrespective of whether data‐derived priors or uniform priors were used. However, the data‐derived priors generated more precise estimates of annual variation that were less sensitive to relaxation of prior constraints. The approach we present can facilitate management decisions at the outset of conservation programmes when risk assessments that account for all relevant uncertainties can be crucial for determining optimal management strategies.

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Application of multiple‐population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Cited by 8 publications

References 55 publications

Risk for overexploiting a seemingly stable seal population: influence of multiple stressors and hunting

Risk for overexploiting a seemingly stable seal population: influence of multiple stressors and hunting

Population genomic monitoring provides insight into conservation status but no correlation with demographic estimates of extinction risk in a threatened trout

Incorporating data‐based estimates of temporal variation into projections for newly monitored populations

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