Application of real option in risk evaluation and management of PPP/PFI projects

Abstract

Public-Private Partnership / Private Finance Initiative (PPP/PFI) has been a widely applied scheme to deliver large-scale infrastructure systems, industrial plants and other development projects, all of which form an essential pillar for global economic growth. The global movement away from heavy dependence on public sector financing, and toward greater reliance on private capital and control, means that the project finance mechanism will constitute an important tool to finance the large-scale infrastructure and industrial projects needed to support their economic development.A privately financed infrastructure project is inherently risky. Risk management in a project becomes a critical issue to both public sectors and private sectors. Risks mean losses to a project in the traditional risk management sense, and when the values of flexible measures to counteract such risks are overlooked, the value of a project may be understated. As an alternative approach, real option assumes that managers can take advantage of upsides and avoid obvious pitfalls during the development of a project. Such actions thus enhance the value of a project, and these are not captured in conventional evaluation methods such as Net Present Value. In this research, the primary objective is to study how real option can be applied to infrastructure projects with risks and uncertainties. The research aims to identify typical options in a project and evaluate them, design a new risk management framework incorporating the real option concept, which will lead to fairer risk allocation in a PPP/PFI setting.Based on the literature review, knowledge about risk management of PPP/PFI and real option theory is acquired. The case study method is used to achieve the research objectives based on the data collected. These case studies can be classified into short and major cases. The analyses of short cases identify embedded options in each -i -ATTENTION: The Singapore Copyright Act applies to the use of this document. Nanyang Technological University Library project, based on which preliminary strategies incorporating the real option concept are designed. In the analysis of Major Case No. 1, the Dabhol Power Plant project in India, it is demonstrated that the real option evaluation methodology is more superior to the traditional NPV approach, and some of the flexible measures embedded in the case could contribute up to 26% of the base case NPV. Analysis of Major Case No. 2, the Malaysia-Singapore Second Crossing, includes an additional dimension, which is the sensitivity analysis of options subject to variations of input parameters. The case also illustrates the significance of creating options during design, construction and operation of a project. Based on the transaction structure and cash flows, Major Case No. 3 analyzes the options in a wastewater treatment plant project in southern China and proposes a new concept of "negotiation bands". Ultimately, the findings in this research lead to a new risk management framework that incorporates the real optio...

Developing a building information modeling–based performance management system for public–private partnerships

“…Meanwhile, the government, private sector, and the general public can access the platform through the Web, which establish a collaborative environment and a mechanism for public participation. As the first usage case for the developed BPMS, the Guanyun project has been lauded for making several breakthroughs in PM (Liu, 2018). Using the hybrid PM system based on BIM and ICT, the Guanyun project has successfully implemented the PM system, including analyzing the project performance results, calculating the payment, guiding the project performance improvement, and providing accurate and effective quantitative parameters for the project performance evaluation.…”