Application of run-off model as a contribution to the torrential flood risk management in Topčiderska Reka watershed, Serbia

Abstract

This paper deals with developing of hydrological flow model for the torrential watershed of the Topčiderska River, located in the Belgrade macro-region, in which torrential flood events have had destructive human and material consequences. The aim of the paper was to show that model, developed by hydrological software SHETRAN, is useful tool enabling the simulation of physical properties and hydrological processes in watersheds, having a significant place in decision support system within the torrential flood risk management. Results achievement was enabled through three phases: (1) Sensitivity analysis showed that the closest hydrograph to registered hydrograph is modelled with averaged values of parameters; (2) model calibration was done by calibration of four main parameters with significant influence on flow component (hydraulic conductivity of soil and rock, Strickler roughness coefficient for overland and river network flow) in case of the torrential flood event from 10th July 1999; and (3) model verification was done by input of calibrated values in case of two another torrential flood events (1996, 1999). Statistical analysis of correspondence of modelled and registered discharges showed that due to correlation coefficient (0.95-0.98) and determination coefficient (0.90-0.96) as well as probability of error according to F test, good results are achieved. Considering obtained results, developed model should be a part of torrential flood risk management in watershed of Topčiderska River.

Hydrological Model of the Toplica Watershed in Addressing New Chaln Lenges in Flood Risk Assessment

“…Finally, the average coefficient of determination for the watershed model of the Toplica/Magovo is 0.87, which is satisfactory in practice of hydrological simulations. By way of comparison, the model developed for the Topčiderska River basin [6], which is hydrologically better studied and gauged and it is situated in peri-urban area (macro region of Serbian capital, Belgrade), the average coefficient of determination for simulated flood events is 0.9. Also, in other studies [13], [15], a high agreement between the modelled and the recorded hydrographs in hydrological simulations is reached.…”

“…For further development of the watershed Toplica/Magovo model, the input files were supposed to be fed with the specific parameters listed in From the listed parameters, there are parameters which greatly influence the runoff output, so these are taken for the model sensitivity and calibration. According to the previous research [6], [13], [14], the characteristics of runoff hydrographs, i.e. slope of growth and recession branches and peak of hydrograph are very sensitive to the values of the vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface soil (Ks), horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone (Kr), the Strickler's coefficients for overland flow for different types of land use (inverse of Manning's roughness coefficient) (So) and the Strickler's coefficients for river network (Sr).…”

“…The initiation of torrential processes is related to a wide range of watershed conditions [1], [2], [3], [4]. Watershed hydrology research is supposed to include all spatially variable natural characteristics (microclimate, topography, geology, soil, vegetation) and anthropogenic factors (for example, land use) [5], [6]. In urbanized landscapes, surface runoff is dominant due to a decrease of permeable surfaces and low infiltration rate.…”

Remote Sensing with UAVs for Flood Modeling: A Validation with Actual Flood Records

“…When combined with numerical analysis, it facilitates hydraulic modeling for a diverse range of applications. These include designing structures [3], implementing flood protection measures, managing and controlling water resources [4][5][6], investigating fluvial processes and the dynamics of pollutant transport [7], predicting scenarios to effectively respond to extreme events [8][9][10], and upholding the proper functioning of the social systems that develop around river systems [11,12], among others.…”

Local Resilience to Natural Hazards in Serbia. Case Study: The West Morava River Valley

“…After that (2013), the production of the studies was increased [26][27][28][29][30][31], most likely as a result of the hazards that happened thereafter.…”