Application of the Altman Model for the Prediction of Financial Distress in the Case of Slovenian Companies

Abstract

Background/Purpose The aim of this paper is to verify the applicability and accuracy of the Altman model in the case of Slovenian companies. The use of the Altman model is hugely popular and widespread among financiers, analysts and other stakeholders who want to determine the creditworthiness of a company’s operations and the likelihood of it running into financial difficulties in the coming years. Methods The study was conducted on a sample of 66 Slovenian companies, which were divided into two equal groups: bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy companies. Based on accounting data for the last five years, the authors of this paper calculated the Z-Score, which is based on the Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). By calculating the statistical error of the estimate (type I and II), the authors verified the extent (in percentage terms) to which the companies had been correctly classified by the model. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to check whether there was a difference in the average Z-Score between the two groups of companies. Results The authors determined that the reliability of the Altman model was 71.21% when tested at the upper bound (the threshold value of the Z-Score was 2.6) and 80.30% when tested at the lower bound (the threshold value of the Z-Score was 1.1). This is similar to other countries, where the reliability was found to be over 70% in most cases. Despite the lower reliability of the model, the Z-Score proved to be an important factor in differentiating between the two groups of companies, as bankruptcy companies had a lower value of this indicator than non-bankruptcy companies. Conclusion Based on the results of this study, as well as those of other studies, it can be summarized that the Altman model is a fairly good way for companies to determine the success of their business in a relatively simple and quick way and also to predict the potential risk of their operations in the future. However, since the reliability of the model is not 100%, it is important to be careful when making business predictions and carry out additional in-depth analyses or use other methods.