Application of the dynamic bounds method in the safety assessment of flood defences, a case study: 17th Street flood wall, New Orleans

Rajabalinejad, Mohammad; Gelder, Pieter van; Demirbilek, Zeki; Mahdi, Tew‐Fik; Vrijling, J.K.

doi:10.1080/17499510903416170

Cited by 7 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Figure 2a presents two uncertainty bounds for moving from Point A to B, and two other uncertainty bounds for moving from point B to A, given a second-order continuous LSE response. It is shown in (Rajabalinejad 2009;Rajabalinejad et al 2008bRajabalinejad et al , 2010b) that these bounds are the extreme responses for a second-order LSE. In other words, one may consider the response order to select the most relevant uncertainty association model (UAM).…”

Section: þmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been shown in (Rajabalinejad et al 2010a, b) that the first three influential variables for the 17th Street Flood Wall provide the desired level of accuracy. We use the same model as (Rajabalinejad et al 2010b) and describe the implementation of BI method for three influential variables to investigate the behavior of 17th Street Flood Wall and provide probability of failure estimates. The candidates for the first three influential variables are shown in Table 3 in (Rajabalinejad et al 2010b).…”

Section: Gaussian Distribution For General Nonlinear Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We use the same model as (Rajabalinejad et al 2010b) and describe the implementation of BI method for three influential variables to investigate the behavior of 17th Street Flood Wall and provide probability of failure estimates. The candidates for the first three influential variables are shown in Table 3 in (Rajabalinejad et al 2010b). It is important to notice that different ranking criteria would produce different outputs.…”

Section: Gaussian Distribution For General Nonlinear Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This case study is explained for instance in(ILIT 2006; USACE-e 2006;Rajabalinejad et al 2010b). In brief, the 17th Street Flood Wall is an I-wall located on the east side of the 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, USA.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations

Rajabalinejad

Mahdi

2010

Nat Hazards

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A recently developed Bayesian interpolation method (BI) and its application to safety assessment of a flood defense structure are described in this paper. We use a onedimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo method (BMC) that has been proposed in (Rajabalinejad 2009) to develop a weighted logical dependence between neighboring points. The concept of global uncertainty is adequately explained and different uncertainty association models (UAMs) are presented for linking the local and global uncertainty. Based on the global uncertainty, a simplified approach is introduced. By applying the global uncertainty, we apply the Guassian error estimation to general models and the Generalized Beta (GB) distribution to monotonic models. Our main objective in this research is to simplify the newly developed BMC method and demonstrate that it can dramatically improve the simulation efficiency by using prior information from outcomes of the preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for the BI method geared to multidimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model, and apply the coupled models to the reliability assessment of a flood defense for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans.

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Section: þmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gaussian Distribution For General Nonlinear Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gaussian Distribution For General Nonlinear Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations

Rajabalinejad

Mahdi

2010

Nat Hazards

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“…The understanding of geotechnical failure mechanisms can be significantly improved by hind-casting historical levee failures (see e.g. Kanning et al, 2008;Rajabalinejad et al, 2010). The learning aspects are essentially three-fold.…”

Section: Learning From Actual Failuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

Jonkman¹,

Schweckendiek²

2015

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Forensic En

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Determination of failure probabilities of flood defence systems with improved dynamic bounds method

2010

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In this paper, we describe the computational framework of a novel method for solving the challenging problem of probabilistic finite elements. The method is called Improved Dynamic Bounds (IDB) and was developed recently to improve the efficiency of the dynamic bounds. The IDB is used in finite element numerical models to calculate timedependent failure analyses of structures. In applications, the IDB can speed up the overall simulation process by several orders of magnitude. In applications controlled by two influential variables (e.g, two-dimensional problem), the computational efficiency is improved by a factor of 769 according to Rajabalinejad (2009). Applications of IDB indicate the method is most efficient for problems where the number of influential variables are limited. This is often the case for geotechnical and coastal flood defence systems. The IDB method is applied in this paper to the 17th Street Flood Wall, a component of the flood defence system (levee infra-structure) that failed during the Hurricane Katrina, to calculate the failure probability of an I-wall.

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Application of the dynamic bounds method in the safety assessment of flood defences, a case study: 17th Street flood wall, New Orleans

Cited by 7 publications

References 6 publications

The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations

The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations

Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

Determination of failure probabilities of flood defence systems with improved dynamic bounds method

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