Application of the modified Arps-Roberts discovery proces model to the 1995 U.S. National Oil and Gas Assessment

Drew, Lawrence J.; Schuenemeyer, John H.; Mast, Richard F.

doi:10.1007/bf02257576

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The modified Arps-Roberts discovery process model, which was used to estimate the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources in each of the provinces shown in figure 2, has been described in detail in Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Mast (1995). Briefly, the forecasting system (ARDS ver.…”

Section: The Discovery Process Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Drew

Schuenemeyer

1996

Nat Resour Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically "see" into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods, In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geologicalbased assessments.

show abstract

Section: The Discovery Process Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2; Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Mast, 1995). The modified Arps-Roberts discovery process model was used to estimate the size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas fields (Schuenemeyer and Drew, 1983).…”

Section: Discovery Process Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Drew

Schuenemeyer

1996

Nat Resour Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There are two commonly used methodologies for assessing undiscovered oil and gas in geologic plays. One is discovery process modeling, a statisticalgeological modeling procedure, which is used in more mature areas (Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Mast, 1995). A mature area is one that has a sufficient number of exploratory and discovery wells to ensure a degree of statistical regularity in an analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology and Results for the Assessment of Oil and Gas resources, National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

Schuenemeyer¹

2003

Open-File Report

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Oil and gas resources in each of the 24 plays within the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) were estimated using a play analysis. Assessors specified geologic attributes, risks, and number of prospects for each play. Some specifications established distributions, while others were given as single values. From this information, sizes of oil and gas accumulations were simulated using a Monte Carlo algorithm. The number of such accumulations considered in a given simulation run was obtained from the distribution of the number of prospects. Each prospect in each successful simulation run was risked. This process yielded size-frequency distributions and summary statistics for the various petroleum categories. Estimates of remaining resources from individual plays were then aggregated, and measures of uncertainty computed. Technically recoverable, undiscovered oil beneath the Federal part of NPRA likely ranges between 5.9 and 13.2 billion barrels, with a mean (expected) value of 9.3 billion barrels. Technically recoverable, undiscovered nonassociated natural gas for the same area likely ranges between 39.1 and 83.2 trillion cubic feet, with a mean (expected) value of 59.7 trillion cubic feet. Mean values of the corresponding associated dissolved gas and natural gas liquid are 10.3 trillion cubic feet and 1.4 billion barrels respectively. modified version of the methodology used in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1998 assessment of the 1002 Area of the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) (Schuenemeyer, 1999). Improvements included modifications to the input form, fitting beta distributions to specified fractiles, and new petroleum engineering models. Minimum reservoir sizes for oil and for gas were established to facilitate estimation of the number of prospects. Approximate deposit size distributions were generated at the mean, median, and 5 th and 95 th levels of uncertainty. Play resources were allocated to Federal land based on estimated proportions of oil and gas resources. Estimates of remaining resources from individual plays were aggregated into distributions of remaining resources for the total NPRA land area and for a subset, the Federal land area. The aggregation procedures also were modified from those used in the 1002-ANWR assessment. This chapter begins with a discussion of the geologic and engineering input, which was specified by the assessors for each play and entered on the assessment form. Following this, the Monte Carlo simulation is presented. We conclude with a discussion of the aggregation procedure. After presentation of the methodology, results will be summarized for each play and for the aggregate total of oil and nonassociated gas and various derivatives. Detailed discussion of the results is presented elsewhere on this Web site. Definition of terms is given in the Glossary. SPECIFICATION OF THE INPUT Information used by the assessment algorithm consisted of statistical models with parameters and assessor-specified distributions and constants. An assessment form, which was a modified ve...

show abstract

“…Size distributions of oil and gas accumulations are traditionally presented as sizefrequency histograms in order to demonstrate the number of accumulations in a distribution by bin size (Drew, 1997). In a well-sampled basin with many discoveries the size-frequency histogram shows an exponential form with decreasing frequency as accumulation size increases, as shown in Figure 3.5 (Drew et al 1995;Drew, 1997). The bottom histogram in Figure 3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…More recently power-law distributions, such as the Pareto distribution function, have become more common (Drew et al, 1995;Laherrere & Sornette, 1998;Attanasi and Charpentier, 2002;.…”

Section: Power-law Probability Distribution Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dual Component Estimation; a probabilistic approach to estimate undiscovered oil and gas in an underexplored basin, Taranaki Basin, New Zealand

Jones¹

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

<p>New Zealand has relied on the supply of oil and gas from the Maui Field in the Taranaki Basin for 40 years. As this field nears depletion, there is considerable governmental encouragement for increased investment in exploration to ensure continued oil and gas production for domestic use and the export market. The Taranaki Basin covers a 100,000 km² area and has a 10 km-thick Cretaceous to Holocene sediment fill, which hosts only 200 exploration wells with 33 oil and gas discoveries ≥ 1 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe). Discoveries have been made throughout Paleocene to Holocene sequences in multiple reservoirs within onshore and offshore parts of the basin. A review of the hydrocarbon potential of the Taranaki Basin suggests that more than one working petroleum system operates in the basin, based on the distribution of oil and gas-condensate. As part of this study the most productive and prospective reservoir intervals have been studied to ascertain the working petroleum systems. The reservoir intervals are grouped into four plays and are referred to as the Cretaceous, Paleocene, Eocene and Miocene plays. The Dual Component Estimation (DCE) is a novel way of combining a modified, existing, size distribution-based discovery-sequence sampling method with a Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based spatial method to estimate the amount and likely location of undiscovered oil and gas in an underexplored basin. In particular, the DCE uses an inverse sampling method to ensure the total number of all accumulations in the basin is not constrained by the size distributions of discoveries, which typically represent a very small proportion of accumulations in an underexplored basin. Furthermore, it is a probabilistic approach that captures ranges in uncertainties that result from using regional scale data and assumptions used to simplify the process of generating and trapping hydrocarbons. Given the underexplored character of the Taranaki Basin, this study has included potential discoveries to define the size distribution of the original population of all accumulations in a basin, which is used to derive the undiscovered volume. Potential discoveries are based on basin modelling and mapped structural traps. This approach increases the dataset of accumulations (discovered and modelled) from 33 to 338 and generates an original parent population that includes petroleum systems information from explored and unexplored areas of the basin. DCE modelling results suggest that the basin has an undiscovered oil and gas resource potential of ~1500 oil and gas accumulations totalling 8210–10800 mmboe. The mean discovery size is 328.7 mmboe; however the next discovery could be as large as 550–900 mmboe (with a 10% probability). More likely, the next discovery is estimated to be at least 50 mmboe (with a 90% probability) which is a commercially significant size in the Taranaki Basin. New discoveries in the Palaeocene play have been modelled in the Manaia anticline area, Western Platform and onshore eastern margin of the basin. It is most likely that a discovery in this play will be at least 40 mmboe, with a 90% probability; however it may be closer to 470 mmboe, with a 10% probability. The Eocene play is the most prospective and future discoveries will most likely be located along the eastern margin of the basin, nearshore and onshore of the western peninsula, and offshore, east of the Maui Field. There is a 10% probability that a new discovery in this play may be as big as 200–500 mmboe. More likely, with a 90% probability, a new discovery may be at least 35 mmboe. Discoveries in the Miocene play are most likely in the onshore peninsular area and in the offshore Northern Graben. There is a 90% probability that the next discovery may be at least 55 mmboe and a 10% probability that it may be much larger (310–800 mmboe). A discovery is yet to be made in the Cretaceous play. This study indicates that a new discovery in this play is most likely to be at least 50 mmboe (with a 90% probability) but may be greater and be at least 500 mmboe (with 10% probability). The strength of the DCE is in the use of additional geological data to include unexplored areas of the underexplored Taranaki Basin in the estimation. This estimation should also be applicable to other geologically similar, underexplored, sedimentary basins of New Zealand.</p>

show abstract

Application of the modified Arps-Roberts discovery proces model to the 1995 U.S. National Oil and Gas Assessment

Cited by 6 publications

References 10 publications

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Methodology and Results for the Assessment of Oil and Gas resources, National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

Dual Component Estimation; a probabilistic approach to estimate undiscovered oil and gas in an underexplored basin, Taranaki Basin, New Zealand

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About