Deasphalting bitumen using paraffinic solvent injection
is a commonly
used technique to reduce both its viscosity and density and ease its
flow through pipelines. Common modeling approaches for asphaltene
precipitation prediction such as population balance model (PBM) contains
complex mathematical relation and require conducting precise experiments
to define initial and boundary conditions. Machine learning (ML) approach
is considered as a robust, fast, and reliable alternative modeling
approach. The main objective of this research work was to model the
effect of paraffinic solvent injection on the amount of asphaltene
precipitation using ML and PBM approaches. Five hundred and ninety
(590) experimental data were collected from the literature for model
development. The gathered data was processed using box plot, data
scaling, and data splitting. Data pre-processing led to the use of
517 data points for modeling. Then, multilayer perceptron, random
forest, decision tree, support vector machine, committee machine intelligent
system optimized by annealing, and random search techniques were used
for modeling. Precipitant molecular weight, injection rate, API gravity,
pressure, C
5
asphaltene content, and temperature were determined
as the most relevant features for the process. Although the results
of the PBM model are precise, the AI/ML model (CMIS) is the preferred
model due to its robustness, reliability, and relative accuracy. The
committee machine intelligent system is the superior model among the
developed smart models with an RMSE of 1.7% for the testing dataset
and prediction of asphaltene precipitation during bitumen recovery.