Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

Zafarani, Hamid; Ghafoori, S. M. M.; Adlparvar, Mohammad Reza; Rajaeian, P.; Hasankhani, A.

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1708-8

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Zafarani et al . [] evaluated the completeness of earthquake records in the different zones of the plateau. The estimated values indicated that spatial variations in quality of seismic catalog and that completeness magnitude is decreasing with time.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These values are justified by high uncertainty in historic data and the development of seismic instruments in quality and quantity during 1900–1965. However, considering the Gutenberg‐Richter frequency‐magnitude relationship proposed for the Iranian Plateau [ Zafarani et al ., ], it should be noted that m < 5.6 earthquakes have a minimal contribution on assessing aseismic deformation since the seismic moment released by m < 5.6 earthquakes is approximately equal to 6% of the total seismic budget, at most. This slight deficit in calculating seismic moment released by earthquakes is acceptable with regard to uncertainties on geological and geodetic data and assumptions in computing long‐term tectonic moment rate from the kinematic model's results.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the Zagros belt, in comparison with other zones, experiences lots of low‐magnitude earthquakes ( M < 6) with relatively short recurrence times. All earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5 have been completely recorded since 1965 [ Zafarani et al ., ]. The seismic catalog for shorter time period (e.g., 50 years) can be considered sufficient to evaluate η .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the Iranian Plateau

2015

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In this paper, the long-term crustal flow of the Iranian Plateau is computed using a kinematic finite-element model (NeoKinema software). Based on the iterated weighted least squares method, the models are fitted to the newest data set of Iran including updated fault traces, geologic fault offset rates, geodetic benchmark velocities, principal stress directions, and velocity boundary conditions. We are successful to find the best kinematic model, in which geological slip rates, geodetic velocities, and interpolated stress directions are fitted at levels of 0.35, 1.0, and 1.0 datum standard deviation, respectively. The best fitted model, for the first time, provides long-term fault slip rates, velocity, and anelastic strain rate field in the Iranian Plateau from all available kinematic data. In order to verify the model, the estimates of fault slip rates are compared to slip rates from merely analyzing geodetic benchmark velocities or paleoseismological studies or published geological rates which have not been used in the model. Our estimated rates are all in the range of geodetic rates and are even more consistent with geological rates than previous GPS-based estimates. Using the selected model, long-term average seismicity maps and long-term moment rates are produced on the basis of the SHIFT hypothesis and previous global calibrations. Our kinematic model also provides a new constraint on ratio of seismic deformation to total deformation for different seismic zones of Iran. The resulting slip rates and the proposed seismic fraction of deformation provide the necessary input data for future time-dependent hazard studies in Iran. Moreover, spatial distribution and total number of strong (M > 6) and major (M > 7) earthquakes, which dominate the seismic hazard, are all compatible with the regional seismic catalog.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the Iranian Plateau

2015

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“…In this region, Yazdani and Kowsari used a nonparametric technique to evaluate seismic danger [8]. In the Iranian Plateau, earthquake hazard indicators were assessed [9]. For diverse places of the Iranian Plateau, a quantitative assessment of earthquake hazard characteristics using a Bayesian technique was carried out [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the North and Northwest Iranian Plate Considering the Bayesian Perspective

Maleki

Rad

2022

Shock and Vibration

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In the last hundred years alone, there have occurred more than 2000 earthquakes larger than 4 in the northern and northwestern parts of Iran. Because Iran is placed in the heart of the Alpine-Himalayan collision zone, which is one of the world’s greatest seismic locations, massive earthquakes have regularly struck the country. Seismic hazard assessment is a realistic and helpful method for engineering seismology to prevent motions in a location in order to forecast the occurrence of earthquakes. For parameter estimation in seismic hazard assessments, the Bayesian probability theory provides a practical and accurate technique. As a result, Bayesian techniques for analysis are based on an older method. Furthermore, they have the unique capacity to account for the variability of characteristics in probabilistic relationships. In this assessment, we used the Bayesian earthquake risk estimation program developed by Lyubushin. Our research is in the sequence of applications of this program to assess the risk of earthquakes in various parts of the universe. In this method, the basic assumption is that earthquakes follow the characteristic of being Poisson. Its zoning map is drawn in the north and northwest regions of Iran. The highest value was obtained for the city of Tabriz with 0.29 galls, and the lowest value was obtained for the city of Zanjan with the value of 0.06 galls.

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A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

Mohammadi

Türker

Bayrak

2016

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

Cited by 9 publications

References 29 publications

Long term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the Iranian Plateau

Long term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the Iranian Plateau

Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the North and Northwest Iranian Plate Considering the Bayesian Perspective

A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

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