Application of Water Balance Model Simulation for Water Resource Assessment in Upper Blue Nile of North Ethiopia Using HEC-HMS by GIS and Remote Sensing: Case of Beles River Basin

Tefera, Ashebir Haile

doi:10.15406/ijh.2017.01.00038

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Calibration and validation results confirmed the adequacy of the HEC-HMS model for rainfall-runoff simulation in the Hayk Lake basin. This result agrees with the findings of [19][20][21] that ensured the applicability of the HEC-HMS model at various spatiotemporal scales in Ethiopia for various purposes such as water availability assessment and flow forecasting.…”

Section: Calibration and Validation Of Model Parameterssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…On the contrary, the mean temperature has warmed at a rate of 0.28 °C Then, the individual rates of impacts of LU-LC and climate change on the generation of surface runoff in the Hayk Lake basin for the period 1989-2015 were calculated based on Table 12 using Eqs. (16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21) and the analysis result is shown in Table 13. As shown in Table 13, during the period 1989-2000, there was an increase in the total surface runoff of 0.54 m resulted from the combined effects of LU-LC and climate changes.…”

Section: Evaluating the Level Of Impact Of Land Use And Cover Change On Surface Runoffmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At various levels of space and time in Ethiopia, attempts have been made to calibrate and apply HEC-HMS simulate runoff for different purposes [19][20][21] and they showed that the HEC-HMS model works well to simulate runoff in every climate zone in the country. However, rainfall-runoff modelling for the LU-LC impact assessment using the HEC-HMS model for the Hayk Lake basin has not yet been conducted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of land use and land cover change on the magnitude of surface runoff in the endorheic Hayk Lake basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2021

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This study focused to analyze the main human-induced land use and/or cover changes and their impact on the response to surface runoff from the Hayk Lake endorheic basin between 1989 and 2015. The investigation of Landsat images of years 1989, 2000 and 2015 with the aid of ArcGIS 10.1 indicated an increase in cultivation land by 137.74% at the disbursement of a decrease of 1.34% in lake water, 49.48% in shrubland, 55.84% in plantation, and 17.32% in grassland. Overall accuracy (92%–96%) and kappa values (0.90–0.95) proved that the image classifications were accurate. The impact of the changed land use and/or cover on surface runoff was investigated by simulating the surface runoff for the years 1989, 2000 and 2015, and then quantifying the individual rate of contribution of land use and/or cover change on the magnitude of simulated surface runoff using HEC-HMS modeling tool. The analysis found that land use and cover change alone increased surface runoff by 20.18% and that climate change reduced surface runoff by 120.18%. The combined effect reduced surface runoff and caused a continued decline in water level at Hayk Lake. Therefore, this study advocated basin-based lake water management strategies linked to the negative impacts of land use and land cover, and climate change on the water balance of Hayk Lake for its sustainability.

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Section: Calibration and Validation Of Model Parameterssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Evaluating the Level Of Impact Of Land Use And Cover Change On Surface Runoffmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of land use and land cover change on the magnitude of surface runoff in the endorheic Hayk Lake basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2021

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“…They provided, as input, some large-scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3. Tefera [23] assessed the availability of surface water resources in the Beles River basin (Ethiopia), using a surface water balance model simulation by HEC-HMS. Muli N. [24] used the HEC-HMS model to study flood in a Nairobi watershed based on a rainfall-runoff process while considering urban development and its effects on the watershed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Wet Season Rainfall Extremes Using Regional Climate Models Ensemble and the Advanced Delta Change Model: Impact on the Streamflow Peaks in Mkurumudzi Catchment, Kenya

2019

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Each year, many African countries experience natural hazards such as floods and, because of their low adaptative capabilities, they hardly have the means to face the consequences, and therefore suffer huge economic losses. Extreme rainfall plays a key role in the occurrence of these hazards. Therefore, climate projection studies should focus more on extremes in order to provide a wider range of future scenarios of extremes which can aid policy decision making in African societies. Some researchers have attempted to analyze climate extremes through indices reflecting extremes in climate variables such as rainfall. However, it is difficult to assess impacts on streamflow based on these indices alone, as most hydrological models require daily data as inputs. Others have analyzed climate projections through general circulation models (GCMs) but have found their resolution too coarse for regional studies. Dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs) seem to address the limitation of GCMs, although RCMs might still lack accuracy due to the fact that they also contain biases that need to be eliminated. Given these limitations, the current study combined both dynamic and statistical downscaling methods to correct biases and improve the reproduction of high extremes by the models. This study’s aim was to analyze extreme high flows under the projection of extreme wet rainfall for the horizon of 2041 of a Kenyan South Coast catchment. The advanced delta change (ADC) method was applied on observed data (1982–2005), control (1982–2005) and near future (2018–2041) from an ensemble mean of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). The created future daily rainfall time series was introduced in the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System) hydrological model and the generated future flow were compared to the baseline flow at the gaging station 3KD06, where the observed flow was available. The findings suggested that in the study area, the RCMs, bias corrected by the ADC method, projected an increase in rainfall wet extremes in the first rainy season of the year MAMJ (March–April–May–June) and a decrease in the second rainy season OND (October–November–December). The changes in rainfall extremes, induced a similar change pattern in streamflow extremes at the gaging station 3KD06, meaning that an increase/decrease in rainfall extremes generated an increase/decrease in the streamflow extremes. Due to lack of long-term good quality data, the researchers decided to perform a frequency analysis for up to a 50 year return period in order to assess the changes induced by the ADC method. After getting a longer data series, further analysis could be done to forecast the maximum flow to up to 1000 years, which could serve as design flow for different infrastructure.

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Revisiting the global weights of the integrated watershed health assessment framework and Weyib watershed health analysis: Ethiopia's policy prospects

Aredo,

Lohani,

Mohammed

2024

World Water Policy

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Watershed health study has been considered as a global issue embodied in the United Nations' 2030 agenda toward sustainable water resources development, paving the way for integrated water resources management (IWRM) application, and visualizing intervention techniques to comprehend existing challenges. The watershed faces tremendous pressure due to erratic rainfall patterns, drastic water demand increase, hydrological extremes, and natural‐anthropogenic activities. This study aims to re‐evaluate the recently developed Integrated Watershed Health Assessment Framework (IWHF) global weights, Weyib watershed health assessment, and Ethiopia's policy implications using the integration of numerous data and multiple tools. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to estimate aggregate results from experts' survey responses, which depicted 50.89% priority for ecological conditions, followed by economic 23.30%, policy 13.82%, and 12% for socio‐cultural attributes. A slight discrepancy was exhibited when global weights were re‐evaluated, and the variables with substantial effects on IWHF in developing countries like Ethiopia were integrated. The majority of Weyib watershed health index (WWHI) indicators unveiled promising results except for stakeholders' collaboration and social obligation to restoration activities, information and educational campaigns, hydrology, wetland, and natural land‐cover. The water‐quality parameters laboratory findings were depicted as suitable for irrigation purposes. In general, the WWHI was in good health status, and a medium‐level priority was required for intervention activities to address deteriorated variables. Moreover, enhancing IWRM's application will contribute to tackling bottlenecks such as boost community awareness and stakeholder collaboration, legal and administrative gaps, overlapped mandates, and unpermitted water use resulting in undermining downstream demands and environmental low‐flow.

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Application of Water Balance Model Simulation for Water Resource Assessment in Upper Blue Nile of North Ethiopia Using HEC-HMS by GIS and Remote Sensing: Case of Beles River Basin

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Impact of land use and land cover change on the magnitude of surface runoff in the endorheic Hayk Lake basin, Ethiopia

Impact of land use and land cover change on the magnitude of surface runoff in the endorheic Hayk Lake basin, Ethiopia

Projecting Wet Season Rainfall Extremes Using Regional Climate Models Ensemble and the Advanced Delta Change Model: Impact on the Streamflow Peaks in Mkurumudzi Catchment, Kenya

Revisiting the global weights of the integrated watershed health assessment framework and Weyib watershed health analysis: Ethiopia's policy prospects

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