Applications of a conceptual framework to assess climate controls of forest tree diseases

Abstract

A conceptual framework for climate involvement in forest tree diseases was applied to seven examples to demonstrate its suitability for different disease types: cases where climate favours pathogen biology which then leads to tree mortality or where diseases are caused primarily by climate-driven physiological injury or stress to trees.Hypotheses for climate involvement are derived from detection and monitoring data to express associations of weather or climate factors with disease development at several spatial and temporal scales. Research findings contribute to an understanding of temperature, precipitation and related climate variables that influence biotic and abiotic diseases. To demonstrate use of the framework, we accessed information from the literature which exposed data and information gaps. Among various simulated approaches to test associations of climate and disease, we found disease risk factor models that use climate inputs derived from monitoring and research provide the best understanding of climate-disease relationships. These model outputs project future disease scenarios that can be used to inform climate adaptation strategies. Conservation and management implications for current and likely future climatic conditions are provided for each disease example. The most common guidance in managed landscapes is to move the imperilled tree species to areas of lower projected climate risk and to favour non-host, climate-adapted tree species where the disease is occurring.

Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change

“…The PIPU model predicted that all 11 climates would be unsuitable in 96.2% of the window. The highest agreement for suitability was among five climates, but only on 0.31 km 2 .…”

“…Climate change impacts are accruing throughout the ecosystems of the world. For forested lands, impacts are pronounced, from increased incidence of insects and disease [1][2][3] to advancing spring phenologies [4] and lengthening growing seasons [5]. Numerous niche analyses show overwhelmingly that the changes in climate expected across the 21st century will be accompanied by shifting limits of distribution, e.g., [6], such that extirpation would be expected over substantial portions of contemporary distributions of either single species, e.g., [7][8][9], or their associations [10,11].…”

“…Our study area comprises the mountains and plateaus of southwest Colorado (Figure 1), a region of 94,238 km 2 . This region, bisected by the Continental Divide, contains headwater drainages contributing to four major river systems: Platte and Missouri to the northeast, Arkansas to the east, Rio Grande to the south, and Colorado to the southwest.…”

Cumulative Impact of Biotic and Abiotic Damage Agents on Lodgepole Pine Tree Form and Stand Structure in Southern British Columbia

“…Regenerate with mixtures of ecologically suitable species at higher initial • stem densities as a possible mitigation tactic against sustained climate change (Hennon et al 2021, Mackenzie & Mahony 2021.…”

Genome-Wide SNP Markers Accelerate Perennial Forest Tree Breeding Rate for Disease Resistance through Marker-Assisted and Genome-Wide Selection

“…To ensure the adoption of effective management plans, it is necessary to pay attention to climate change, since different pathogens prefer certain temperatures and humidity, and are affected by the seasonal change in these factors and the formation of newly favorable climatic conditions for disease agents. Climate change can accelerate the spread and severity of their pathogenicity [ 13 ]. On the other hand, developing new adapted forest trees with acceptable resistance against biotic stresses (e.g., fungal diseases) will be necessary in integrative management of forests infected by these diseases.…”