Applications of Probability Theory in Criminalistics

Kingston, Charles

doi:10.2307/2283138

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Some relevant discussion was given by Kingston (1965) long before the advent of DNA profiling. If a particular item of evidence has a probability P , then he assumed that the unknown number x of occurrences of the profile in a large population of N people is Poisson with parameter λ = NP : Pr(x) = λ x e −λ /x!.…”

Section: Uniqueness Of Profilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forensics

Weir¹

2007

Handbook of Statistical Genetics

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Section: Uniqueness Of Profilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kingston (1965) went on to determine the probability that at least two people in the population have a particular profile given that at least one person is known to have it. This probability is…”

Section: Uniqueness Of Profilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forensics

Weir¹

2007

Handbook of Statistical Genetics

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“…Such matching approaches have been widely considered in the forensic identification literature. For example, Kingston (1965) defined identification in terms of the same kind of set S r as above. We shall return to example (a) in .…”

Section: Linkage By Matchingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Probability of Identification: Applying Ideas from Forensic Statistics to Disclosure Risk Assessment

Skinner

2006

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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Summary. This paper establishes a correspondence between statistical disclosure control and forensic statistics regarding their common use of the concept of 'probability of identification'. The paper then seeks to investigate what lessons for disclosure control can be learnt from the forensic identification literature. The main lesson considered here is that disclosure risk assessment cannot, in general, ignore the search method employed by an intruder seeking to achieve disclosure. The effects of using several search methods are considered. Through consideration of the plausibility of assumptions and 'worst case' approaches, the papers suggests how the impact of search method can be handled. The paper focuses on foundations of disclosure risk assessment, providing some justification for some modelling assumptions underlying some existing record level measures of disclosure risk. The paper illustrates the effects of using different search methods in a numerical example based upon microdata from a sample from the 2001 Census.

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“…Fisher, R.A. (1934), "The Effect of Methods of Ascertainment Upon the Estimation of Frequencies," Annuls of Eugenics, 6, 13-25. Kingston, Charles R. (1965), "Applications of Probability Theory in Criminalistics, 11," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Smith, Robert Longworth and Charrow, Robert P. (1975), "Upper and Lower Bounds for the Probability of Guilt Based on Circumstantial Evidence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 55560.…”

Section: Journal Of the American Statistical Association June 1977mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finney, in examining the coin-toss experiment, maintains that both Kingston (1965) and Smith and Charrow (1975) were remiss in not defining with greater precision a conditional event I . He then sets forth several logically possible meanings for the event I and proceeds to analyze the experiment in light of each of the possible meanings.…”

Section: Coin-toss Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%