The hypothesis that human reasoning obeys the laws of quantum rather than classical probability has been used in recent years to explain a variety of seemingly "irrational" judgment and decisionmaking findings. This article provides independent evidence for this hypothesis based on an a priori prediction, called the quantum question (QQ) equality, concerning the effect of asking attitude questions successively in different orders. We empirically evaluated the predicted QQ equality using 70 national representative surveys and two laboratory experiments that manipulated question orders. Each national study contained 651-3,006 participants. The results provided strong support for the predicted QQ equality. These findings suggest that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain noncommutativity of measurements in physics, provides a simple account for a surprising regularity regarding measurement order effects in social and behavioral science.attitude judgment | national surveys | quantum theory | measurement effects U nderstanding human reasoning under uncertainty is fundamental for improving decisions about environmental policies, economic planning, public health, and many other important areas. Fifty years of behavioral decision-making research has established that humans do not always follow the "rational" rules of Bayesian probability theory (1). Recently, a group of psychologists and physicists have formulated new rules for human reasoning under uncertainty based on quantum probability theory (2-4). This article reports a test of this theory based on results from a quite different paradigm. We show that the theory implies an a priori and precise prediction called the quantum question (QQ) equality (5). This parameter-free prediction concerns the effect of question order on human judgments. The prediction was tested with the results of 70 national representative surveys, most containing more than 1,000 participants per survey, and two laboratory studies, that manipulated question order. This article presents the QQ equality, its surprisingly strong empirical support, and the key quantum principle, called the law of reciprocity, upon which the QQ equality was mathematically derived. Finally, we explain why human judgments follow quantum rules even if the brain may not be a quantum computer.
The QQ EqualityTo introduce the QQ equality, consider three examples of context effects on answers to attitude questions in surveys, illustrated in Table 1. These are the results of three Gallup polls reported in a seminal article on question order effects (6). Each poll included a representative sample of around 1,000 US adults. The participants in one random half of the sample were asked two questions in one order, and those in the other half were asked the same two questions in the opposite order. In the first poll, people were asked whether Bill Clinton was honest and trustworthy, and whether Al Gore was honest and trustworthy. In the second poll, people were asked whether white people dislike black people, ...