Applying an ensemble classification tree approach to the prediction of completion of a 12-step facilitation intervention with stimulant abusers.

Abstract

Aims The purpose of this study was to explore the selection of predictor variables in the evaluation of drug treatment completion using an ensemble approach with classification trees. The basic methodology is reviewed and the subagging procedure of random subsampling is applied. Methods Among 234 individuals with stimulant use disorders randomized to a 12-Step facilitative intervention shown to increase stimulant use abstinence, 67.52% were classified as treatment completers. A total of 122 baseline variables were used to identify factors associated with completion. Findings The number of types of self-help activity involvement prior to treatment was the predominant predictor. Other effective predictors included better coping self-efficacy for substance use in high-risk situations, more days of prior meeting attendance, greater acceptance of the Disease model, higher confidence for not resuming use following discharge, lower ASI Drug and Alcohol composite scores, negative urine screens for cocaine or marijuana, and fewer employment problems. Conclusions The application of an ensemble subsampling regression tree method utilizes the fact that classification trees are unstable but, on average, produce an improved prediction of the completion of drug abuse treatment. The results support the notion there are early indicators of treatment completion that may allow for modification of approaches more tailored to fitting the needs of individuals and potentially provide more successful treatment engagement and improved outcomes.

Methadone‐Assisted Opiate Withdrawal and Subsequent Heroin Abstinence: The Importance of Psychological Preparedness

“…8,9 Self-efficacy is an element of psychological preparedness for addiction treatment, which has been examined in relation to a variety of substances across treatment contexts. [10][11][12] Self-efficacy is generally understood to refer to a person's belief in their ability to achieve specific goals. 13 For addiction treatment, this implies attaining treatment objectives including, where appropriate, abstinence from a drug of addiction.…”

“…Self‐efficacy is an element of psychological preparedness for addiction treatment, which has been examined in relation to a variety of substances across treatment contexts 10‐12 . Self‐efficacy is generally understood to refer to a person's belief in their ability to achieve specific goals 13 .…”

Age differences in outcomes among patients in the “Stimulant Abuser Groups to Engage in 12-Step” (STAGE-12) intervention

“…However, among people who did not remain abstinent during treatment, those in the STAGE-12 group had somewhat higher rates of substance use compared to those in TAU. Of particular importance is that age was not a predictor of treatment completion for those randomized to receive STAGE-12 (Doyle & Donovan, 2014). Treatment completion is a consistent predictor of better treatment outcomes (McLellan, 2006; Simpson, Joe, Rowan-Szal, & Greener, 1997).…”

Patterns of Caregiver Factors Predicting Participation in Trauma-Focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy

“…CART, a data driven method, is a nonparametric methodology that creates a decision tree (Chang et al 2012). CART methodology is gaining popularity in psychological research (Brabant et al 2013;Doyle and Donovan 2014) and medical research (Kurosaki et al 2011a, b) as a method to identify factors relating to prognostic outcomes. CART allows for discovering patterns in data that may be important for decision-making (Huang et al 2007).…”