Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

Abstract

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Acquaintance Rape

“…The criminality theme also overlaps relatively well with the criminality theme identified by Lehmann et al (2013) in their BTA analysis of stranger rape cases. This theme seems to represent offenders with lower levels of aggression (no relationship to prior violent offenses) coupled with antisocial personality traits (significant relationship to prior charges and convictions for robbery) corresponding to an "opportunistic" offender according to the MTC:R4 (Knight, 2010).…”

“…Building on research by Lehmann et al (2013), the results show that objective crime scene behavior can help to infer the psychological meaning of the crime for the offender. Furthermore, the findings indicate that previous patterns of crime scene variables in stranger rapes are transferable to cases of acquaintance rape and are consistent with the existing and abundant general literature on sexual offender types.…”

“…The results indicate that the behavioral themes of hostility and pseudointimacy predicted sexual recidivism and that the pseudo-intimacy theme added incrementally to the Static-99 risk assessment tool. In line with Lehmann et al (2013), the four variables, vaginal penetration of the victim, having their clothing disturbed, the use of force to control the victim, and physical resistance by the victim constituted the core features of rape according to the MDS analysis. This indicates that the level of force typically required in rape cases (i.e., force control) is that necessary to overcome the victim's nonconsent (i.e., physical resistance).…”

“…In other words, the individual propensities of an offender (e.g., sexual interest in violence) may be activated during the course of an offense and manifest in a particular pattern of crime scene behaviors (e.g., offender tortures the victim, offender humiliates the victim). Lehmann, Goodwill, Gallasch-Nemitz, Biedermann, and Dahle (2013) were the first to address the gap between CSA and risk assessment by using Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA), an approach to CSA developed in the field of investigative psychology (Canter, 2004). Using a sample of 167 stranger rape offenders, Lehmann et al (2013) replicated the behavioral thematic structure of crime scene variables found in previous studies on stranger rape (e.g., Canter, Bennell, Alison, & Reddy, 2003), namely, criminality, hostility, and sexuality.…”

“…The current study extended the BTA approach taken by Lehmann et al (2013) to a sample of acquaintance rape cases. As advocated by Lehmann et al, the application of BTA analysis must be grounded in a valid theoretical framework.…”