Applying ecological niche modelling to plan conservation actions for the Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei)

Marini, Miguel Ângelo; Barbet‐Massin, Morgane; Martinez, J.C. Gimeno; Prestes, Nêmora Pauletti; Jiguet, Frédéric

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2009.09.009

Cited by 72 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Colombo & Joly (2010) predicted contraction of more than 50% for half of the 38 Atlantic Forest trees species modeled. Analyzing the possible impacts of CC on the Red-spectacled Parrot, Amazona pretrei, Marini et al (2010) predicted a 47% contraction in the species' year-round distribution, which is very close to our own prediction for the species (Table S2). None of these studies have incorporated sea level rise into the models.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…The few studies that have performed SDM simulations to predict the impacts of CC on Atlantic Forest species have generally found species ranges contracting (Haddad et al 2008;Colombo & Joly 2010;Marini et al 2010). Here, we add another piece to this incomplete puzzle by conducting SDMs to assess the potential impacts of CC on the distribution and conservation of the endemic and threatened birds of the Atlantic Forest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Redistribution of Threatened and Endemic Atlantic Forest Birds Under Climate Change

Souza¹,

Lorini²,

Alves³

et al. 2011

Nat. Conserv.

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Knowledge of the possible impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the tropics is especially scarce. We used maximum entropy modeling of species distributions to predict the ranges of endemic and threatened Atlantic Forest birds under a "business as usual" emissions scenario for 2050. Of the 51 species with reliable models, 44 were predicted to lose distribution area, with future ranges averaging 45% of their original size. Range contraction would bring two species to IUCN's threshold for threat under the Extent of Occurrence criterion. We also predict that the size of the regions that currently have the maximum number of endemic and threatened birds would be greatly reduced. Several such regions are currently highly deforested, which might reinforce the future threat to biodiversity.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Redistribution of Threatened and Endemic Atlantic Forest Birds Under Climate Change

Souza¹,

Lorini²,

Alves³

et al. 2011

Nat. Conserv.

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“…BIOMOD (Thuiller, 2009) es un ejemplo de ensamble de técnicas, que permite aplicar a la vez nueve técnicas de modelación. Es un software programado en el lenguaje estadístico R que ha sido utilizado principalmente para analizar proyecciones de la distribución actual bajo escenarios de cambio climático, análisis del nivel de protección actual y futuro de especies con problemas de conservación (Le Maître et al, 2008;Barbet-Massin et al, 2009;Parviainen et al, 2009;Marini et al, 2010).…”

Section: Ensambles De Técnicasunclassified

Modelación de la distribución de especies y ecosistemas en el tiempo y en el espacio: una revisión de las nuevas herramientas y enfoques disponibles

Pliscoff

Fuentes‐Castillo

2011

Rev. geogr. Norte Gd.

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Modelación de la distribución de especies y ecosistemas en el tiempo y en el espacio: una revisión de las nuevas herramientas y enfoques disponibles 1Patricio Pliscoff 2 y Taryn Fuentes-Castillo 3 RESUMENEste artículo tiene como objetivo presentar el marco conceptual y metodológico en que se desarrollan las técnicas de modelos de distribución para especies y ecosistemas. Se hace una revisión histórica de los conceptos que fundamentan estas técnicas y se presentan las principales etapas metodológicas involucradas en estos análisis. Se discute cómo estos enfoques son de gran utilidad para el desarrollo de nuevas preguntas en el campo de la biogeografía y de la conservación biológica. Finalmente, se presenta una aplicación de técnicas de modelos de distribución, tomando como caso de estudio Beilschmiedia miersii (belloto del norte). Esta revisión conceptual y metodológica, así como el ejemplo aplicado, buscan clarifi car la utilidad y el potencial que tienen los modelos de distribución, con el objetivo de invitar a la investigación en biogeografía y así seguir avanzando en el conocimiento de los patrones espaciales y temporales de la distribución de los organismos.Palabras clave: Modelos de distribución de especies/ecosistemas, nicho ecológico, biogeografía de la conservación, cambio climático. ABSTRACTThis article aims to present the conceptual and methodological framework in which models techniques for species and ecosystems distribution are developed. An historical review of concepts behind these techniques is made as well as the presentation of the major methodological steps involved in these tests. A discussion on how these approaches are useful for the development of new questions in the fi eld of biogeography and biological conservation is generated. Finally, an application of distribution modeling techniques, using the specie Beilschmiedia miersii (belloto Del Norte) as a study case, is presented. This conceptual and methodological review as well as the example applied, seeks to clarify the usefulness and potential of distribution models techniques, with the objective to go forward in biogeography research and thus, farther progress in understanding spatial and temporal patterns of organism's distribution.

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“…Anciã es & Peterson 2006, Nunes et al 2007, Marini et al 2009b, a, Marini et al 2010.Nevertheless, studies focusing birds endemic to highaltitude areas are very scarce and restricted to the Andean region (e.g. Graham et al 2010Graham et al , S¸ekercioglu et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How climate change can affect the distribution range and conservation status of an endemic bird from the highlands of eastern Brazil: the case of the Gray-backed Tachuri, Polystictus superciliaris (Aves, Tyrannidae)

2015

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How climate change can affect the distribution range and conservation status of an endemic bird from the highlands of eastern Brazil: the case of the Gray-backed Tachuri, Polystictus superciliaris (Aves, Tyrannidae).http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1676-06032015007513Abstract: The Gray-backed Tachuri (Polystictus superciliaris) is a Tyrannidae restricted to eastern Brazilian highlands. Its population and range are still thought to be declining mainly due to habitat loss, caused by land use. We evaluated the impacts on its range (increase or decrease, displacement in latitude and altitude), considering possible effects caused by inappropriate land use and climatic changes. For this purpose, we modeled its current range and estimated its overlap between the predicted area and future scenarios. We also analyzed the efficiency of the Brazilian reserves to the species' protection. The range established by the Maxent model was 76.1% lower than that available in the literature and presented a decrease in the future. Range contraction for the periods under consideration ranged from 22.5% to 77.3%. The distribution center shifts to the southwest (from 102.5 km to 275.4 km) and to higher elevations (1,102 m to 1,428 m). From the predicted range, 20% are under some kind of human occupation. The Brazilian reserves partially protect the species, with only 12% of its range, from the 44.2% expected. Based on these predictions, and depending on the species' dispersal ability and adaptation, it may become vulnerable in the period of 2080. This study demonstrates that the most important areas for maintaining populations of P. superciliaris now and in the future are those located in the 'Iron Quadrangle', especially the Serra da Gandarela, where it was partially protected by the recently decreed Gandarela National Park. This region should receive special attention because it is strongly threatened by iron mining in areas relevant for conservation located outside this reserve.

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Applying ecological niche modelling to plan conservation actions for the Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei)

Cited by 72 publications

References 39 publications

Redistribution of Threatened and Endemic Atlantic Forest Birds Under Climate Change

Redistribution of Threatened and Endemic Atlantic Forest Birds Under Climate Change

Modelación de la distribución de especies y ecosistemas en el tiempo y en el espacio: una revisión de las nuevas herramientas y enfoques disponibles

How climate change can affect the distribution range and conservation status of an endemic bird from the highlands of eastern Brazil: the case of the Gray-backed Tachuri, Polystictus superciliaris (Aves, Tyrannidae)

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