Applying the exponential smoothing model for forecasting tourists' arrivals: Example of Novi Sad, Belgrade and Niš

Abstract

Predicting future movements of tourism demand based solely on the past behaviour of variables such as number of overnight stays is crucial for the development of tourism and mitigation of seasonality. Nowadays, there are many different models that could be used for forecasting. Sometimes, some simpler models could fit better to collected data and, in the other hand, more sophisticated ones are more convenient. In this paper, the exponential smoothing models have been applied on the data that was taken from Republic Statistical Office (RSO). The research was conducted on monthly data relating to the number of overnight stays in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš during the period from January 2000 to December 2013. Based on the selected data, forecasting was made for overnight stays until May 2018. It is concluded that the selected models correspond to the observed data, and the precision of the obtained predictions is determined by comparing the BIC precision measures.

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“…This is reasonable because of the observed seasonality in GCS. An exception is "PC" line where the low value of γ indicates a stable seasonal effect (Vujko, et al, 2018). For all coastal lines the Ljung -Box statistical criterion showed that the errors had white noise behavior and the models were adequate.…”

Forecasting methods in Greek coastal shipping: The case of Southwest Crete

“…This is reasonable given the observed seasonality in the GCS. For the rest of the ports the low value of γ indicates a stable seasonal effect [53]. The port of Gavdos was the only one that gave DMTS.T + S.A as the best model.…”

Demographic Monitoring and Forecasting Tourists Arrivals as a Means of Overcoming Seasonality

“…According to Papić-Blagojević et al (2016), and Vujko et al (2018), seasonality is one of the main aspects affecting tourism, and forecasts of tourist arrivals are essential for planning (Brougham & Butler, 1981), policy making (Dogan, 1989;Canizares et al, 2016) and budgeting purposes by tourism operators (Choi & Murray, 2010;Deng et al, 2011;Gounopoulos et al, 2012). Ada Ciganlija is a river island on Sava River and popular swimming area for residents of Belgrade during the summer, but it attracts a significant number of visitors off summer season, so, as such, it represents one of the favorite zones of picnic-recreational tourism within the city of Belgrade.…”