Apportionment of the Pre‐Industrial to Present‐Day Climate Forcing by Methane Using UKESM1: The Role of the Cloud Radiative Effect

O’Connor, Fiona M.; Johnson, Ben; Jamil, Omar; Andrews, Timothy; Mulcahy, Jane; Manners, James

doi:10.1029/2022ms002991

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 112 publications

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“…In the troposphere the production of water vapor is negligible compared to the natural water cycle 11 , but in the stratosphere, this reaction can affect the water vapor levels. Finally, changes in OH, ozone, and other oxidants may also affect the formation of particles, especially sulfate, secondary organic aerosols, and nitrate, and alter their size distributions 12 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) allow comparisons of the global warming impacts of different gases, and hence hydrogen against other technologies. GWP is a useful metric, facilitating, for example, comparison of different implementations of a future hydrogen economy with other technologies that attempt to mitigate climate change 13 .…”

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confidence: 99%

A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen

Sand

Skeie

Sandstad

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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With increasing global interest in molecular hydrogen to replace fossil fuels, more attention is being paid to potential leakages of hydrogen into the atmosphere and its environmental consequences. Hydrogen is not directly a greenhouse gas, but its chemical reactions change the abundances of the greenhouse gases methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor, as well as aerosols. Here, we use a model ensemble of five global atmospheric chemistry models to estimate the 100-year time-horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP100) of hydrogen. We estimate a hydrogen GWP100 of 11.6 ± 2.8 (one standard deviation). The uncertainty range covers soil uptake, photochemical production of hydrogen, the lifetimes of hydrogen and methane, and the hydroxyl radical feedback on methane and hydrogen. The hydrogen-induced changes are robust across the different models. It will be important to keep hydrogen leakages at a minimum to accomplish the benefits of switching to a hydrogen economy.

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confidence: 99%

A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen

Sand

Skeie

Sandstad

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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“…The generalisation allows for inclusion of more species that affect ERFaci in addition to SO 2 , BC and OC that was modelled previously. The generalisation is useful as there is evidence for a large ERFaci response to CH 4 in UKESM1-0-LL through methane's effect on competing for atmospheric oxidants including OH, affecting the rate of new particle formation (O'Connor et al, 2022). As with earlier versions of FaIR, the form of eq.…”

Section: Aerosol-cloud Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections

Smith,

Cummins,

Fredriksen

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Simple climate models (also known as emulators) have re-emerged as critical tools for analysis of climate policy. Emulators are efficient and highly parameterised, where the parameters are tunable to produce a diversity of global mean surface temperature (GMST) response pathways to a given emissions scenario. Only a small fraction of possible parameter combinations will produce historically consistent climate hindcasts, a necessary condition for trust in future projections. Alongside historical GMST, additional observed (e.g. ocean heat content) and emergent climate metrics (such as the equilibrium climate sensitivity) can be used as constraints upon the parameter sets used for climate projections. This paper describes a multi-variable constraining package for the FaIR simple climate model (FaIR versions 2.1.0 onwards) using a Bayesian framework. The steps are firstly to generate prior distributions of parameters for FaIR based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Earth System models or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed ranges, secondly to generate a large Monte Carlo prior ensemble of parameters to run FaIR with, and thirdly to produce a posterior set of parameters constrained on several observable and assessed climate metrics. Different calibrations can be produced for different emissions datasets or observed climate constraints, allowing version-controlled and continually updated calibrations to be produced. We show that two very different future projections to a given emission scenario can be obtained using emissions from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) (fair-calibrate v1.4.0) and from updated emissions datasets through 2022 (fair-calibrate v1.4.1) for similar climate constraints in both cases. fair-calibrate can be reconfigured for different source emissions datasets or target climate distributions, and new versions will be produced upon availability of new climate system data.

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Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints

Quaas,

Andrews,

Bellouin

et al. 2024

AGU Advances

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Since the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) an extended concept of the energetic analysis of climate change including forcings, feedbacks and adjustment processes has become widely adopted. Adjustments are defined as processes that occur in response to the introduction of a climate forcing agent, but that are independent of global‐mean surface temperature changes. Most considered are the adjustments that impact the Earth energy budget and strengthen or weaken the instantaneous radiative forcing due to the forcing agent. Some adjustment mechanisms also impact other aspects of climate not related to the Earth radiation budget. Since AR5 and a following description by Sherwood et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams‐d‐13‐00167.1), much research on adjustments has been performed and is reviewed here. We classify the adjustment mechanisms into six main categories, and discuss methods of quantifying these adjustments in terms of their potentials, shortcomings and practicality. We furthermore describe aspects of adjustments that act beyond the energetic framework, and we propose new ideas to observe adjustments or to make use of observations to constrain their representation in models. Altogether, the problem of adjustments is now on a robust scientific footing, and better quantification and observational constraint is possible. This allows for improvements in understanding and quantifying climate change.

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Apportionment of the Pre‐Industrial to Present‐Day Climate Forcing by Methane Using UKESM1: The Role of the Cloud Radiative Effect

Cited by 9 publications

References 112 publications

A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen

A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen

fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections

Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints

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