Appraising the “Thucydides Trap” Geographically: The Korean Factor in Sino‐US Relations

Abstract

In lieu of taking stock of the many problems presently plaguing Sino‐US relations, this research zeroes in on just one of them – the evolving situation on the Korean Peninsula that has both alarmed and captivated the world. Korea, prima facie, is a case that has the likely potential to erupt into an open conflict between China and the United States. Situated against the broad context of great power entanglement on the Peninsula, this paper examines the convergence, as well as divergence, of interests and strategic objectives for both China and the United States in terms of areas of cooperation and competition. It argues that their shared aversion to a war, and the complex, multilateral nature of the matter, distinguishes Korea from other disputes, particularly Taiwan and the South China Sea. Korea, therefore, is not at the center of a Sino‐US Thucydides Trap. Nevertheless, Sino‐US competition to shape the future of the strategic landscape of the Peninsula will undoubtedly continue and might even intensify.

The Impact of Geopolitical Influence on Regional Cooperation and Integration in East Asia

“…However, having its ally become one of the nuclear-weapon states redefines the China–North Korea relations (and the China–US rivalry) in favor of China. As a result, China would have its ally become more dependable (have more bargaining power); simultaneously, it elevates the relative importance of the Chinese role in negotiating peace and stability in the region (Kim and Cha, 2016; Xiao, 2016; Yang, 2019).…”