To improve the accuracy of the probability of life value calculation while ensuring computational efficiency, a study was conducted on the finite element probability of life calculation method for beam-shell coupling. On the basis of the finite element heat and stress coupling model of Type I welded beam, a fatigue fracture model of residual stress and cyclic load coupling was established. The probability of life calculation of beam-shell elements was theoretically derived, and the expression of the probability of life model was unified. The probability of life of Type I welded beam was calculated, and it was compared with the model of beam assumption and the full life test result. The results show that the computational efficiency of the beam-shell coupling model is higher than that of the shell element model. In addition, the probability of life calculation result obtained by the beam-shell coupling model is highly consistent with the experimental result in statistical terms, and it has higher accuracy at low stress levels than the calculation result of the beam element, with the relative error between the median of the calculation result and the experimental result being less than 10%.