Approaches for Safety Analysis of Gas-Pipeline Functionality in Terms of Failure Occurrence: A Case Study

Abstract

Abstract:The development of appropriate assessment methods of gas-pipeline functionality contributes to the reduction of failure consequences and helps engineers to make the right decisions as to the optimal solution choice for technical facilities, as well as provides procedures to protect their users and the surrounding environment. This paper presents methods for the assessment of gas network operation. Pipe failure data were collected from a gas distribution network. A statistical analysis of the failure of gas networks was made. An attempt was made to isolate seasonal and accidental fluctuations in the tested failure stream. The Poisson distribution was proposed as a model of failure distribution of gas networks. The conducted analysis allowed us to propose the forecasting method of acceptable failure consequences using the homogeneous Markov chain. The obtained results are valuable for supporting the management of urban gas networks, mainly in terms of the strategic modernization plans and the rehabilitation techniques.

Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers

“…Risk acceptance criteria can be used in the decision-making process regarding the operation of such a system [3]. These criteria should take into account requirements relating to the reliability of subsystem operation, in terms of both quantity and quality, in accordance with applicable legal regulations, as well as social and economic conditions [59][60][61].…”

Considering Risk Associated with the Realization of Waste Management Investment Plans in Cracow

“…Scenario S3 was the most innovative one. Except of elements from other scenarios, it included a new investment, which was incineration plant with possibility of energy and heat recovery, a solution not commonly used in Poland [1,3,4].…”

“…higher or lower, or in time and period other than planned. Making economic decisions it should be taken into account the risks associated with the danger of not achieving the intended purpose, in turn, failure to achieve the objective pursued may be associated not only with the occurrence of the loss, but also obtaining a result lower than expected [1,8,9]. …”

“…These two last scenarios were credited with 25% probability of occurrence.The next step, the expected value needs to be determined ‫ܧ(‬ ே ), which must include the probability of occurrence of each scenario (Table 4). Then, the standard deviation (ߪ ே ) of these values was determined and coefficient of variation CV on basis of Equation 5 [1]. …”

“…This article shows aspects which was taken into account in multi-criteria assessment conducted to emerge the best scenario and because this was the high-risk investment, also factors, that could have the highest impact, were identified and analyzed. For the purpose of this analysis the value of the net present value (NPV) was determined, which was used to carry out the sensitivity and scenario analysis, which culminated in a qualitative risk assessment [1,2]. The aim of the article, was to present the assumptions of sensitivity analysis of the scenarios for management of waste system on the example of Cracow.…”