Aquifer responses to long-term climatic periodicities

Liesch, Tanja; Wünsch, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.060

Cited by 36 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…For instance, Neves et al (2019) identified significant relationships between the NAOI and groundwater level in Portuguese aquifers and at approximately 6-and 10-year periodicities, with associations to episodes of recorded groundwater drought. Furthermore, Liesch and Wunsch (2019) found significant coherence between NAOI and groundwater level at approximately 6-to 16-year periodicities across the UK, Germany, Netherlands and Denmark. Rust et al (2019;2021a) identified a similar significant 6-to 9-year cycle across a large dataset of groundwater level (59 boreholes) and streamflow (705 gauges) in the UK, which was associated with the principal periodicity of the NAO (of a similar length (Hurrell et al, 2003;Zhang et al, 2011)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…European GWL records, such as those in the UK (Rust et al, 2018Holman et al, 2011, Hungary (Garamhegyi et al, 2016), Spain (Luque-Espinar et al, 2008), Italy (De Vita et al 2011), and Germany (Liesch and Wunsch, 2019); and European streamflow records, for example in the UK (Rust et al 2021;Burt and Howden, 2013) and Sweden (Uvo et al, 2021).…”

Section: Historical Covariances Between the Naoi And Water Resources At Multiannual Periodicitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the NAO index for forecasting water resource extremes

Rust

Bloomfield

Cuthbert

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Drought forecasting and early warning systems for water resource extremes are increasingly important tools in water resource management, particularly in Europe where increased population density and climate change are expected to place greater pressures on water supply. In this context, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ais often used to indicate future water resource behaviours (including droughts) over Europe, given its dominant control on winter rainfall totals in the North Atlantic region. Recent hydroclimate research has focused on the role of multiannual periodicities in the NAO in driving low frequency behaviours in some water resources, suggesting that notable improvements to lead-times in forecasting may be possible by incorporating these multiannual relationships. However, the importance of multiannual NAO periodicities for driving water resource behaviour, and the feasibility of this relationship for indicating future droughts, has yet to be assessed in the context of known non-stationarities that are internal to the NAO and its influence on European meteorological processes. Here we quantify the time-frequency relationship between the NAO and a large dataset of water resources records to identify key non-stationarities that have dominated multiannual behaviour of water resource extremes over recent decades. The most dominant of these is a 7.5-year periodicity in water resource extremes since approximately 1970 but which has been diminishing since 2005. Furthermore, we show that the non-stationary relationship between the NAO and European rainfall is clearly expressed at multiannual periodicities in the water resource records assessed. These multiannual behaviours are found to have modulated historical water resource anomalies to an extent that is comparable to the projected effects of a worst-case climate change scenario. Furthermore, there is limited systematic understanding in existing atmospheric research for non-stationaries in these periodic behaviours which poses considerable implications to existing water resource forecasting and projection systems, as well as the use of these periodic behaviours as an indicator of future water resource drought.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Historical Covariances Between the Naoi And Water Resources At Multiannual Periodicitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the NAO index for forecasting water resource extremes

Rust

Bloomfield

Cuthbert

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Wavelet analysis is a powerful method of time series analysis compared with more traditional methods and have been widely used for hydrologic or atmospheric variables since the 1990s (Holman et al, 2011;Liesch and Wunsch, 2019;Holman et al, 2011;Kang and Lin, 2007;Grinsted et al, 2004;Torrence and Compo, 1998). A wavelet is characterized by its localization in both time and frequency and wavelet analysis is therefore an adequate method to examine multiscale phenomena of a climatic series.…”

Section: Wavelet Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France

Labrousse

Ludwig

Pinel

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Warming trends are responsible for an observed decrease of water discharge in Southern France (northwestern Mediterranean). Ongoing climate change and the likely increase of water demand threaten the availability of water resources over the coming decades. Drought indices like the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are increasingly used in climate characterization studies, but little is known about the relationships between these indices, water resources and the overall atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigate the relationships between the RDI drought index, water discharge and four atmospheric teleconnection patterns (TPs) for six coastal river basins in southern France, both for the historical period of the last 60 years and for a worst-case climatic scenario (RCP 8.5) reaching the year 2100. We combine Global and Regional Climate Model (CGM and RCM, respectively) outputs with a set of observed climatic and hydrological data in order to investigate the past relationships between RDI, water discharge and TPs and to project their potential evolutions in space and time. Results indicate that annual water discharge can be reduced by −49/−88 % by the end of the century under the extreme climate scenario conditions. Due to unequal links with TPs, the hydro-climatic evolution is unevenly distributed within the study area. Indeed a clustering analysis performed with the RDI time series detects two major climate clusters, separating the eastern and western part of the study region. The former indicates stronger relationships with the Atlantic TPs (e.g. the NAO and the Scand patterns) whereas the latter is more closely related to the Mediterranean TPs (MO and WeMO). The future climate simulations predict an antagonistic evolution in both clusters which are likely driven by decreasing trends of Scand and WeMO. The former provokes a general tendency of lower P in both clusters during spring, summer and autumn, whereas the latter might partly compensate this evolution in the eastern cluster during autumn and winter. However, compared to observations, representation of the Mediterranean TPs WeMO and MO in the considered climate models is less satisfactory compared to the Atlantic TPs NAO and Scand, and further improvement of the model simulations therefore requires better representations of the Mediterranean TPs.

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“…Another modeling approach of soil moisture is based on remote-sensing data. This has been done on catchment scale (e.g., Pellenq et al, 2003;Penna et al, 2009), regional scales (e.g., Mahmood et al, 2012;Otkin et al, 2016;Long et al, 2019) and the global scale (e.g., Dorigo et al, 2017;Albergel et al, 2020) with various calculation grid sizes and temporal resolutions. Analysis of inherent parameter uncertainty in modeled soil moisture and implications for current discussions about soil moisture dynamics should be considered (Samaniego et al, 2012) as well as upscaling of measurements to different temporal and spatial scales .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deep desiccation of soils observed by long-term high-resolution measurements on a large inclined lysimeter

Merk

Goeppert

Goldscheider

2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Availability of long-term and high-resolution measurements of soil moisture is crucial when it comes to understanding all sorts of changes to past soil moisture variations and the prediction of future dynamics. This is particularly true in a world struggling against climate change and its impacts on ecology and the economy. Feedback mechanisms between soil moisture dynamics and meteorological influences are key factors when it comes to understanding the occurrence of drought events. We used long-term high-resolution measurements of soil moisture on a large inclined lysimeter at a test site near Karlsruhe, Germany. The measurements indicate (i) a seasonal evaporation depth of over 2 m. Statistical analysis and linear regressions indicate (ii) a significant decrease in soil moisture levels over the past 2 decades. This decrease is most pronounced at the start and the end of the vegetation period. Furthermore, Bayesian change-point detection revealed (iii) that this decrease is not uniformly distributed over the complete observation period. The largest changes occur at tipping points during years of extreme drought, with significant changes to the subsequent soil moisture levels. This change affects not only the overall trend in soil moisture, but also the seasonal dynamics. A comparison to modeled data showed (iv) that the occurrence of deep desiccation is not merely dependent on the properties of the soil but is spatially heterogeneous. The study highlights the importance of soil moisture measurements for the understanding of moisture fluxes in the vadose zone.

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Aquifer responses to long-term climatic periodicities

Cited by 36 publications

References 64 publications

The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the NAO index for forecasting water resource extremes

The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the NAO index for forecasting water resource extremes

Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France

Deep desiccation of soils observed by long-term high-resolution measurements on a large inclined lysimeter

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