Arctic Climate Extremes

Overland, James E.

doi:10.3390/atmos13101670

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Полученные результаты согласуются с исследованиями J. Overland [3], который для морских волн тепла в Баренцевом море (экстремальных аномалий температуры поверхности моря выше 95 процентиля диапазона аномалий за 1982-2011 гг. и продолжительностью 5 последовательных дней) показал, что их интенсивность, продолжительность и частота растут.…”

Section: обсуждение результатовunclassified

“…Аналогичные волны тепла наблюдаются и в арктических морях [2]. Так, J. Overland [3] на основе данных о температуре поверхности океана (ТПО) по ежедневным данным наблюдений и спутниковым данным (реанализ NOAA DOISST v2.1) показал, что интенсивность, продолжительность, частота и площадь арктических морских волн тепла увеличились в 1982-2020 гг. из-за потепления климата.…”

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Changes in the parameters of extreme temperature events in the western part of the Russian Arctic according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses in 1980–2022

Serykh,

Kostianoy

2023

Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki

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The air temperature in the Arctic zone of Russia is increasing at a rate of 0.71 °C per decade, which is three times faster than the global average. The warming of climate is accompanied by an increase in its extremeness, which leads to an increase in the number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. The most significant changes occurred in the statistics of large-scale summer heat waves in European Russia. One of the most important goals in studying current climate changes is to study the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, in particular, heat or cold waves. In this paper, we investigate the average daily anomalies relative to the annual variation of air temperature at a height of 2 meters from the surface in the region of the western part of the Russian Arctic (60°–75° N, 30°–85° E), according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalyses for the period 1980–2022. Their root-mean-square deviations and the distribution of their average number per year are calculated. We have plotted the fields of average values and the rate of changes in the amplitude, duration and number of anomalous temperature events which exceed two standard deviations in the study region. Areas of increase and decrease in the amplitude, duration and number of extreme events, both with positive and negative temperature anomalies, are displayed. In general, it can be concluded that, on average, the amplitudes of positive extreme air temperature anomalies in the study area slightly increase. The duration of positive extreme anomalies is growing everywhere at a rate of 0.2 days per 10 years. The duration of negative extreme anomalies slightly decreases. The number of events with negative extreme anomalies has been decreasing at a rate of –0.5 to –3 events per year for 10 years, while the number of events with positive extreme anomalies has been increasing from 0.1 to 1 events per year for 10 years.The results obtained significantly expand our knowledge of the spatiotemporal features of the ongoing changes in the extreme climate of the western part of the Russian Arctic, which is of paramount importance for the analysis and forecasting of the development of natural and socio-economic systems in the region under study.

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Changes in the parameters of extreme temperature events in the western part of the Russian Arctic according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses in 1980–2022

Serykh,

Kostianoy

2023

Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki

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Future Climate Change in the Northern Bering Sea

Overland,

Wang

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Bering Sea is undergoing major changes from increasing winter temperatures to the north, extreme minimum sea‐ice years in 2018 and 2019, through to an ecosystem reorganisation and negative impacts on communities' economic and subsistence food resources. These events have emerged under a global warming background, with positive feedback processes through a weakened atmospheric Alaskan Arctic Front (AAF) that promotes a self‐reinforcing process of sea‐ice loss, warmer air and sea temperatures, a wavy jet stream, and southerly winds. Interannual variability is still important: during 2021–2024 the Aleutian Low‐pressure system was regionally dominant in supporting a strong AAF, and sea‐ice conditions were observed close to the climatological mean. Before 2017, the AAF, consisting of cold dry air mass to the north and moist relatively warm air mass to the south, was a barrier to northward movement of storms, keeping the northern Bering/Chukchi seas with a cold Arctic climate. That historical situation is ending. Of critical importance is the probable reoccurrence of low Bering Sea sea‐ice years over the next decades and related ecosystem impacts. We propose that radically low sea ice will have a frequency of one to three 2018‐like low sea‐ice events per decade in the coming two decades, based on a historical meteorological analysis and ensemble climate model projections. Arctic temperatures to the north are increasing, weakening their contribution to the AAF. A weakened AAF and low sea‐ice years needs the winter Aleutian low pressure system to be far to the west of its average position, with southerly rather than northeasterly winds, warm years and low sea‐ice extent. From 1948 to 2024 meteorological records, this western location occurred with a range of zero to three times per decade. Communities need to plan for a response to intermittent occurrence of 2018‐like extreme sea‐ice loss and their ecosystem impacts over the coming decades.

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Cross‐border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe

Mosoni,

Hildén,

Fronzek

et al. 2024

WIREs Climate Change

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The Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the rest of the globe during the past four decades. This has led to multiple impacts in the Arctic such as the melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice retreat, permafrost thaw, altered species distribution and abundance, changes in hydrology and snow conditions, and altered wildfire regimes. These documented and projected impacts in the region can also propagate across borders, creating risks and opportunities requiring adaptation responses well beyond the Arctic. By undertaking a systematic literature review that uses a conceptual framework for cross‐border climate change impacts, we demonstrate how local impacts of the type described above, which are often analyzed separately in the literature, may initiate knock‐on effects that can be transmitted and transformed across borders. We illustrate examples of six categories of cross‐border risks resulting from this impact transmission and potentially requiring adaptation. These concern biophysical impacts, trade, infrastructure, finance, geopolitical relationships and human security and social justice. We examine potential adaptation options for responding to such cross‐border risks that are of relevance for Europe. The systemic approach taken in this paper promotes improved understanding of trade‐offs between potential benefits and risks, assists priority‐setting for targeting adaptation interventions, and can account for the important role of non‐climatic drivers in amplifying or dampening the cross‐border risks of climate change impacts in the Arctic.This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

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Arctic Climate Extremes

Cited by 7 publications

References 34 publications

Changes in the parameters of extreme temperature events in the western part of the Russian Arctic according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses in 1980–2022

Changes in the parameters of extreme temperature events in the western part of the Russian Arctic according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses in 1980–2022

Future Climate Change in the Northern Bering Sea

Cross‐border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe

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