Arctic Development in Connection with the Northern Sea Route: A Review of Ecological Risks and Ways to Avoid Them

Abstract

The unprecedented melting of Arctic ice provides new opportunities for shipping by decreasing the distance for commercial traffic between Asia and Europe by up to 40%. However, its development is associated with inevitable problems caused by the vulnerability of polar ecosystems. As research methods, we have chosen system and comparative analyses of open sources; national development strategies of the Russian Federation (primarily), China, Northern Europe, and the USA (partially); and scientific articles from the Scopus and Elibrary databases. As a result, we have identified the reasons for possible risk situations for the Arctic region’s sustainable development: mining on the shelf, oil and oil product spills during the transportation of goods and fishing activities, etc. Black carbon (soot) emitted from using marine diesel fuel is the main atmospheric air pollutant. In addition, actively developing infrastructure (ports and new industrial zones) also has a negative anthropogenic impact on the environment. Within the framework of an ecosystem approach, we studied ways to prevent risky situations when planning logistics routes using the Northern Sea Route. We concluded about the need to expand the icebreaker fleet. We proposed a conceptual model of the risk management system based on the monitoring of the key indicators’ system. We identified possible types of risks according to the place of their occurrence and according to the stages of the life cycle of such systems. Furthermore, we provided the steps of the risk management system and an example of the application of a “bow-tie” diagram—a qualitative method for assessing the risk of “collision”.

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