Arctic futures: conceptualizations and images of a changing Arctic

Arbo, Peter; Iversen, Audun; Knol, Maaike; Ringholm, Toril; Sander, Gunnar

doi:10.1080/1088937x.2012.724462

Cited by 59 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Because of the small sample size and the extensive criteria used to choose it, heavy conclusions cannot be drawn, but those studies that involve stakeholders tend to take uncertainties into account through analytical exercises, not only by relying on single judgement of the uncertainty. Since the review by Arbo et al (2013), four out of six studies have applied dimensions of uncertainty techniques (Bishop et al 2007) to develop socio-economic scenarios. The considered uncertainties are case-dependent but similar uncertainties are considered in all of the sample studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the list of Arbo et al (2013) was complemented with recent studies found by various Google Scholar and Web of Science searches, and also with the socio-economic scenarios developed by the authors in the TWASEproject (Haavisto et al 2016). The following criteria was applied to choose the items added to the list of Arbo et al (2013): 1. The language of the study is English and the study is available in an electronic format (article, report or website).…”

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Arbo et al (2013) review approximately 50 Arctic futures studies and identify six methodological approaches in studies dealing with socioeconomic and political aspects: implicit futures, visions, high probability scenarios, qualitatively different scenarios, simulations, and games. These 50 studies include all kinds of forward-looking and policy oriented studies, of which not all present holistic socio-economic scenarios.…”

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To complement the study by Arbo et al (2013) and to identify the recent developments in the field, a selection of different Arctic socio-economic scenarios creating multiple possible futures were identified. The content characteristics of different Arctic scenarios were of interest; the factors and uncertainties identified within them, and how they addressed climate change.…”

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The content characteristics of different Arctic scenarios were of interest; the factors and uncertainties identified within them, and how they addressed climate change. The starting point for the sampling was the literature list provided by Arbo et al (2013). 1 Studies chosen were such studies that allow reasonable consideration of uncertainties of possible development trends or futures, and that also create a clear set off different future visions or narratives -not just a single story.…”

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Haavisto

Pilli-Sihvola

Harjanne

2017

The Interconnected Arctic — UArctic Congress 2016

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Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts, but explore a range of possible futures. Socio-economic scenarios enable the consideration of different uncertainties related to the future and may improve decision-making by enabling the development and analysis of robust decisions. The development of socioeconomic scenarios in the Arctic has been a fairly popular topic for scenario analyses. This study reviews ten selected socio-economic scenarios developed for the Arctic region that differ in structure and geographic focus. The analysis shows that the key uncertainties are fairly similar across the different scenarios. The key uncertainties are mainly related to governance or management and natural resources, but recently the uncertainty and importance of political factors have risen. Climate change is included in all scenarios, but its contribution to the future development of the region and its perceived uncertainty varies depending on the scenario.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Socio-economic Scenarios For the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Haavisto

Pilli-Sihvola

Harjanne

2017

The Interconnected Arctic — UArctic Congress 2016

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Climate‐related range shifts in Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Anderson

Fahrig

Rausch

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Aim To test whether the occupancy of shorebirds has changed in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and whether these changes could indicate that shorebird distributions are shifting in response to long‐term climate change. Location Foxe Basin and Rasmussen Lowlands, Nunavut, Canada. Methods We used a unique set of observations, made 25 years apart, using general linear models to test if there was a relationship between changes in shorebird species' occupancy and their species temperature Index, a simple version of a species climate envelope. Results Changes in occupancy and density varied widely across species, with some increasing and some decreasing. This is despite that overall population trends are known to be negative for all of these species based on surveys during migration. The changes in occupancy that we observed were positively related to the species temperature index, such that the warmer‐breeding species appear to be moving into these regions, while colder‐breeding species appear to be shifting out of the regions, likely northward. Main Conclusions Our results suggest that we should be concerned about declining breeding habitat availability for bird species whose current breeding ranges are centered on higher and colder latitudes.

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European Fantasy of the Arctic Region and the Rise of Indigenous Sámi Voices in the Global Arena

Toivanen

2019

Arctic Triumph

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In 325 BC the great Greek explorer Pytheas of Massalia travelled in the north of Scandinavia and wrote about the place where the sun never goes to sleep. His stories told about a sublime territory, cold and harsh, inhabited by an isolated, "backwards" people whose lives were shrouded with mystique. Since then, being so far away from civilisation, an imposed and dominating narrative took form in Europe about the region now called Lapland and the North Calotte. The place also became imagined as a cornucopia: a place of immense richness. In many ways, this narrative still lingers today. With examples from the Finnish context, this article argues, that the indigenous peoples of the Arctic are, still centuries after the voyages of Pytheas, the object of a European fantasy. They are framed as guardians of the treasure chest that is the Arctic and as an ancient people of 'nature' rather than "culture" and thus doomed to the unpolitical. They are all too rarely given agency. Still today, the states do not listen to their voices. However, the Sámi in the Arctic have today carved out another path to political leverage. They have taken part in the global narrative of indigenous resistance against the conquest and oppression by their states. This article presents examples from the Finnish context, where this global discourse has helped Sámi in Finland to reach the global centers of power in New York and Geneva and gain leverage with the state on land right issues. Adopting this global discourse however, requires indigenous minorities to adopt a specific narrative of "minority-ness"; it requires emphasis on unity and homogeneity and a history of violent conquest, even though the Sámi both historically and contemporarily are more complex and diverse than that. The adoption of this discursive strategy exemplifies the dialectic between disaster and triumph that lies in the core interest of this volume; finding the trail of success through a story of disaster. However, one can still ask on whose terms this current trail is cut out and who it will benefit in the end. Is it the states or the indigenous peoples? Introduction: European imaginaries about Lapland and its inhabitantsThe Greek explorer Pytheas of Massalia travelled in the north of Scandinavia around the same time when Alexander the Great conquered the world in the south (McPhail, 2014). It has been estimated that Pytheas was, if ever, conducting his travels around 325 BC. Later paraphrasers of his now lost work told about a land surrounded by ice where the sun never sets (Chevallier, 1984; Duffy, 2013, p. 125). The accounts of Pytheas' voyages influenced the stories told about to Arctic for centuries to come (Nansen, 2012, p. 44). The Arctic was for long an area which functioned as a "blank canvas upon which the European imagination could project sublime territories and beings", as Duffy (2013, p. 125-126) describes it. It was "shrouded in mystery" into the late 19th century (Ibid.). Since then, there has been a great variation of stories and myths about the region now c...

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Arctic futures: conceptualizations and images of a changing Arctic

Cited by 59 publications

References 18 publications

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Climate‐related range shifts in Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

European Fantasy of the Arctic Region and the Rise of Indigenous Sámi Voices in the Global Arena

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