Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

Shu, Qi; Wang, Qiang; Årthun, Marius; Wang, Shizhu; Song, Zhenya; Zhang, Min; Qiao, Fangli

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abn9755

Cited by 71 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…As mentioned above, the largest changes in MLD, SSHF, and SIC in the Atlantic sector follow the pathways of Atlantic Water inflow (Figure 1 and Figure S1 in Supporting Information ). This indicates that future Arctic climate changes are closely related to the increased OHT into the Arctic Ocean, which can cause ocean warming, sea ice decline, and increase in SSHF and MLD in previously ice‐covered areas (Årthun et al., 2017; Docquier & Koenigk, 2021; Shu et al., 2021, 2022). Therefore, significant correlations can be found between the future changes of the winter SIE and MLD in the Eurasian Basin and the future changes of the annual mean OHT through the Barents Sea Opening (BSO; Figures 2c and 2d).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SIE is calculated as the sum of grid cell areas where sea ice concentration (SIC) is larger than 15%. The OHT through each Arctic Ocean gateway is calculated using monthly seawater potential temperature and ocean velocity following Shu et al (2022) as:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Arctic Atlantification was observed in the Barents Sea and the eastern Eurasian Basin (Ingvaldsen et al., 2021; Polyakov et al., 2017). Climate model simulations indicate that persistent increases in Atlantic Water heat inflow to the Arctic Ocean in a warming climate will sustain the Arctic Ocean amplification (Shu et al., 2022) and feed the Arctic atmospheric amplification as well (Beer et al., 2020; Shu et al., 2022; van der Linden et al., 2019). However, in a future warming climate, the Barents Sea will lose cooling efficiency due to stronger atmospheric warming in this region, and the remaining ocean heat will become an important source of ocean warming in the Arctic deep basin, with strong impacts on ocean stratification, winter sea ice cover and atmosphere warming in the Arctic interior (Shu et al., 2021, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Pan

Shu

Wang

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Arctic is very susceptible to global climate change. Its surface air temperature (SAT) is warming at a rate 2-4 times higher than the global average starting from the 1970s (Bekryaev et al., 2010;Holland & Bitz, 2003;Rantanen et al., 2022;Serreze & Barry, 2011). The phenomenon of Arctic amplification has been found not only in historical observations and climate model projection simulations, but also in proxy reconstructions of paleo climate changes (Pithan & Mauritsen, 2014;Renssen et al., 2009). Warming amplification has also been detected in the ocean component of the Arctic based on analysis of climate models (Shu et al., 2022). The sea ice decay associated with Arctic warming is a crucial indicator of both Arctic and global climate changes (Notz & Stroeve, 2016;Polyakov et al., 2010;Shu et al., 2022). Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) in September has halved since the late 1970s (Perovich et al., 2017) and the location of the winter sea ice edge has also considerably retreated, potentially affecting weather and climate across the Northern Hemisphere (

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Pan

Shu

Wang

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The Arctic is a region of amplified warming, with temperatures increasing twice as fast as the global average, i.e., an Arctic amplification of climate change (Serreze et al, 2009;England et al, 2021;Shu et al, 2022). The strong temperature increase is accompanied by a decline in sea ice thickness (Kwok, 2018) and extent (Onarheim et al, 2018;Meredith et al, 2019) in all regions and all seasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea

2023

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Abstract. Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas.

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“…Nonetheless, climate models predict that a slowdown in the future is likely (Weijer et al, 2020), but this does not mean that a collapse of the AMOC is imminent and neither a temperature drop in the Northern Hemisphere (Shu et al, 2022). The collapse scenario is therefore categorized as "low probability, high impact" (IPCC, 2021).…”

Section: The Gulfstream and A New Ice Agementioning

confidence: 99%

BOLD STATEMENTS in environmental and climate science communication

Karpouzoglou

Muilwijk²,

Lauber³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Environmental and climate science communication often results in the production of appealing but, at times, inaccurate statements, i.e. "bold statements". Such statements are common in the media, however, in-cases, are used by scientists alike. We discuss the concept of such statements seeking to identify their origin and purpose, as well as the benefits and threats of such communication methods. By bringing bold statements in context to the paradigm of climate science communication we argue that their use is enforced by the urgent nature of climate change and that bold statements have been proven useful in raising public awareness and mobilizing the public toward positive climate action, as well as in accelerating law-/policy-making processes that follow scientific conclusions. On the other hand, we demonstrate three example cases of bold narratives in climate and environmental science communication, i.e. 1) An upcoming cooling of Europe due to the gulf stream collapsing, 2) a new island made out of garbage in the Pacific Ocean, and 3) an upcoming "apocalypse'' due to bee extinction. Through those cases, we bring up concerns that using bold statements and sacrificing scientific accuracy in the shrine of public mobilization may backfire, as the use of bold statements encompasses risks by spreading misinformation, and can lead the public to confusion and inappropriate action.

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Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

Cited by 71 publications

References 74 publications

Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea

BOLD STATEMENTS in environmental and climate science communication

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