Arctic RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation derived indices relevant to future frozen ground conditions

Rinke, Annette; Matthes, Heidrun; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Kuhry, Peter; Romanovsky, V. E.; Dethloff, Klaus

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.011

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…For example, changes of icefree periods, storminess and associated wave heights (e.g., Khon et al 2014) impact coastal erosion, navigation and on/off-shore engineering. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation (e.g., Matthes et al 2009, Rinke et al 2012, Glisan and Gutowski 2014 impact permafrost conditions, erosion and related infrastructure. Still, regional trends of Arctic weather and climate extremes are largely unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer

Matthes

Rinke

Dethloff

2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Due to a mistake in the calculation of the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and cold spell duration index (CSDI) for the ERAInterim data, the magnitudes of the trends presented in our study are too small. Both indices were calculated using daily mean temperatures instead of daily minimum (for CSDI) and daily maximum (for WSDI) temperatures in comparison with the percentiles TN10 (for CSDI) and TX90 (for WSDI), which leads to much smaller values for the indices and therefore smaller trends. We corrected the calculation and plotted figure 1 again. The most prominent changes occur for warm spell duration index in summer. However, the main results and conclusions of our study are not affected by the error. Results3.1. Spatial patterns of trends in spells 3.1.1. Warm spells (WSDI) The paragraph on the spatial patterns of warm spell duration index (WSDI) should read: ERA-Interim dataderived trends (shading in figure 1(d)) suggest that warm spells have changed most noticeably over Greenland (up to 4 days/decade). The station-derived (colored circles in figure 1(d)) significant positive trends indicating an increase of warm spells over southern Siberia are reproduced by ERA-Interim, in contrast to the significant positive station based trends over Scandinavia. Both data sets indicate an increase in warm spells over western Russia and parts of the Canadian Archipelago. AbstractIn the Arctic, climate change manifests with the strongest warming trends on the globe, especially in the cold season. It is under debate if climate extremes change similarly strong. Our study provides detailed regional information about two selected temperature extreme indices in the Arctic, namely warm and cold spells in winter and summer. We analyze their temporal evolution and variability from 1979-2013, based on daily station data and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Calculated trends from both datasets suggest a widespread decrease of cold spells in winter and summer of up to −4 days/decade, with regional patches where trends are statistically significant throughout the Arctic. Winter trends are spatially heterogeneous, the reanalysis also shows small areas with statistically significant increases of cold spells throughout Siberia. Calculated changes in warm spells from both datasets are mostly small throughout the Arctic (less than±1 day/decade) and statistically not significant. Remarkable exceptions are the Lena river basin in winter with a statistically significant decrease of up to −1.5 days/decade and areas in Scandinavia with statistically significant increases of up to 2.5 days/decade in winter and summer (again from both datasets). From the analysis of spell lengths, we find that there are no shifts from longer to shorter spells or vice versa with time, but long cold spells (events lasting for more than 15 days) disappear almost completely after the year 2000. There is a distinct inter-annual and decadal variability in the spells, which hinders the detection of significant trends for all spell categories in all regions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer

Matthes

Rinke

Dethloff

2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Furthermore, studies agree in projection of a reduction of the sea-level pressure by the end of 2100 (Chapman and Walsh 2007;Rinke and Dethloff 2008;IPCC 2013;Koenigk et al 2015). Several models project an increasing in 2-m temperature (Keup-Thiel et al 2006;Stendel et al 2008;Førland et al 2009;Rinke et al 2012;Steiner et al 2013) as well as an increment of precipitation (Stendel et al 2008;Steiner et al 2013;Zhang et al 2016) by the end of the century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

et al. 2017

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most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

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“…The ASCT is calculated as the sum of mean monthly temperature for months with a mean temperature above 0°C within a year (details are provided in SI Materials and Methods and Fig. S3) and is considered to have a major impact on permafrost thawing (55). POC flux and discharge are found to be correlated with continuous permafrost coverage (P < 0.05, R 2 = 0.85) and basin area (P < 0.05, R 2 = 0.84), respectively, and are hence not included as basin parameters in the 14 C correlation analyses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential mobilization of terrestrial carbon pools in Eurasian Arctic river basins

Feng

Vonk

Dongen

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

195

226

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Mobilization of Arctic permafrost carbon is expected to increase with warming-induced thawing. However, this effect is challenging to assess due to the diverse processes controlling the release of various organic carbon (OC) pools from heterogeneous Arctic landscapes. Here, by radiocarbon dating various terrestrial OC components in fluvially and coastally integrated estuarine sediments, we present a unique framework for deconvoluting the contrasting mobilization mechanisms of surface vs. deep (permafrost) carbon pools across the climosequence of the Eurasian Arctic. Vascular plant-derived lignin phenol 14 C contents reveal significant inputs of young carbon from surface sources whose delivery is dominantly controlled by river runoff. In contrast, plant wax lipids predominantly trace ancient (permafrost) OC that is preferentially mobilized from discontinuous permafrost regions, where hydrological conduits penetrate deeper into soils and thermokarst erosion occurs more frequently. Because river runoff has significantly increased across the Eurasian Arctic in recent decades, we estimate from an isotopic mixing model that, in tandem with an increased transfer of young surface carbon, the proportion of mobilized terrestrial OC accounted for by ancient carbon has increased by 3–6% between 1985 and 2004. These findings suggest that although partly masked by surface carbon export, climate change-induced mobilization of old permafrost carbon is well underway in the Arctic.

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Arctic RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation derived indices relevant to future frozen ground conditions

Cited by 15 publications

References 32 publications

Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer

Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

Differential mobilization of terrestrial carbon pools in Eurasian Arctic river basins

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