Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978–1996

Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Gloersen, P.; Zwally, H. Jay; Comiso, Josefino C.

doi:10.1029/1999jc900082

Cited by 605 publications

(531 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

493

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Since 1979, annual mean sea ice extent as recorded by satellites has declined by about 3% per decade. Ice extent in September (the month of the seasonal minimum) has decreased by at least twice this rate (Parkinson et al, 1999;Comiso, 2000Comiso, , 2001Cavalieri et al, 2003;Stroeve et al, 2005) and the past four Septembers (2002Septembers ( through 2005 have seen extreme minima (Serreze et al, 2003;Stroeve et al, 2005; http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice index/). There are also indications of decreased sea ice thickness and volume (Rothrock et al, 2003;Rothrock and Zhang, 2004;Lindsay and Zhang, 2005), warming of soils and permafrost (Osterkamp and Romanovsky, 1999), increased precipitation (Groves and Francis, 2002), and rising discharge from Arctic-draining rivers in Siberia (Peterson et al, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Arctic Amplification Debate

2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025)(2026)(2027)(2028)(2029), rather than to the doubled-CO 2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Arctic Amplification Debate

2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Numerous studies have demonstrated that the Arctic sea ice cover has been undergoing significant changes for the past few decades, with a reduction in the amount of multiyear ice [Johannessen et al, 1999;Comiso, 2002], decreases in ice extent of 3% per decade [Parkinson et al, 1999;Parkinson and Cavalieri, 2002], and an overall thinning of the ice [Rothrock et al, 1999;Tucker et al, 2001].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal evolution and interannual variability of the local solar energy absorbed by the Arctic sea ice–ocean system

et al. 2007

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

[1] The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m À2 . There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m À2 . The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.Citation: Perovich, D. K., S. V. Nghiem, T. Markus, and A. Schweiger (2007), Seasonal evolution and interannual variability of the local solar energy absorbed by the Arctic sea ice -ocean system,

show abstract

“…Using the above ice data for Oct 1978-Dec 1996(Jan 1979-Dec 1999, Parkinson et al [1999] (Parkinson and Cavalieri [2002]) reported that the total Arctic sea ice extent decreased by $34,300 km 2 /yr ($32,900 km 2 /yr). Regionally, the trends are negative in the Arctic Ocean, the Barents/Kara Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk, and positive in the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St Lawrence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability: Connections to the Arctic Oscillation and the ENSO

Liu

Curry

2004

Geophysical Research Letters

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

[1] Trends in the satellite-derived Arctic sea ice concentrations show pronounced decreases in the Barents/Kara Seas, between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, the central Sea of Okhotsk and a portion of the Hudson/Baffin Bay by $2 -8% per decade, exceeding the 95% confidence level. Qualitatively speaking, positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) produce similar ice changes in the western Arctic, but opposite ice changes in the eastern Arctic. The manner in which the ice changes are related to the AO and ENSO are demonstrated. Over the last 24 years, the magnitude of the ice changes associated with the positive AO trend and the negative ENSO trend is much smaller than the regional ice trends. Thus, more local or less understood large scale processes should be investigated for explanations.

show abstract

Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978–1996

Cited by 605 publications

References 37 publications

The Arctic Amplification Debate

The Arctic Amplification Debate

Seasonal evolution and interannual variability of the local solar energy absorbed by the Arctic sea ice–ocean system

Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability: Connections to the Arctic Oscillation and the ENSO

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About