Are Bankruptcy Prediction Models Effective for Predicting Ratings? An Empirical Investigation of Altman’s Model in Indian Corporate Sector

Abstract

The alternative method for predicting credit ratings by employing bankruptcy prediction models is the main subject of the present article. Rating agencies utilize an extremely intricate rating methodology, which differs from agency to agency, and the ratings given by agencies are less reliable in anticipating short-term defaults and react slowly to credit events, as demonstrated by the failure of agencies during the crisis of 2008. Both credit rating assignment and bankruptcy prediction focused on the probability of default, but the methodology used by the two varies significantly: corporate bankruptcy prediction models predict the future default probability of a company as a whole, whereas credit rating only access the default risk associated with a specific instrument. Therefore, it is preferable to employ bankruptcy prediction algorithms to access a company’s future ratings. The present study used Altman’s framework in order to assess whether bankruptcy prediction models can be applied to access a company’s future ratings in advance or not and found that it can be used as an alternative method to predict the future credit ratings, which can be used by investors and banks to make better investment and lending decisions.