Are brown trout replacing or displacing bull trout populations in a changing climate?

Al‐Chokhachy, Robert; Schmetterling, David A.; Clancy, Chris; Saffel, Pat; Kovach, Ryan P.; Nyce, Leslie G.; Liermann, Brad; Fredenberg, Wade; Pierce, Ron.

doi:10.1139/cjfas-2015-0293

Cited by 51 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…; Al‐Chokhachy et al. ). Shifts are expected at warm downstream population boundaries because increasing temperatures will make growth, disease resistance, and survival more difficult during one or more life stages (Hari et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although infrequently considered in the climate–aquatic literature, headwater portions of especially cold rivers may present suboptimal thermal conditions for trout, especially species like the Brown Trout and Rainbow Trout that have relatively warm thermal niches compared to other trout species (Al‐Chokhachy et al. ; Isaak et al. 2017a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; Al‐Chokhachy et al. ), adjustments in phenology (Wedekind and Kung ; Martins et al. ), and evolutionary change (Crozier et al.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

et al. 2018

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Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of coldwater fishes in the current era of rapid climate change require knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for detrimental biological impacts. Robust estimates of warming rates, however, are lacking due to limited long‐term temperature monitoring, so we compiled the best available multidecadal records and estimated trends at 391 sites in the 56,500‐km river network of the northwestern USA. Warming trends were prevalent during summer and early fall months in recent 20‐ and 40‐year periods (0.18–0.35°C per decade during 1996–2015 and 0.14–0.27°C per decade during 1976–2015), paralleled air temperature trends, and were mediated by discharge trends at regional and local levels. To illustrate the biological consequences of warming later in this century, trend estimates were used to inform selection of river temperature scenarios and assess changes in thermal exposure of adult Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka migrating to four population areas as well as thermal habitat shifts for resident Brown Trout Salmo trutta and Rainbow Trout O. mykiss populations throughout the region. Future warming of 1–3°C would increase Sockeye Salmon exposure by 5–16% (3–143 degree‐days) and reduce thermally suitable riverine trout habitats by 8–31% while causing their upstream shift. Effects of those changes on population persistence and fisheries are likely to be context dependent, and strategic habitat restoration or adaptation strategies could ameliorate some biological impairments, but effectiveness will be tempered by the size of rivers, high costs, and pervasiveness of thermal effects. Most salmon and trout rivers will continue to provide suitable habitats for the foreseeable future, but it also appears inevitable that some river reaches will gradually become too warm to provide traditional habitats.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

et al. 2018

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“…Bull trout have a cold thermal niche and are often constrained to headwater streams by warm downstream temperatures and other salmonid competitors (Al-Chokhachy et al 2016, Isaak et al 2016a. Bull trout have a cold thermal niche and are often constrained to headwater streams by warm downstream temperatures and other salmonid competitors (Al-Chokhachy et al 2016, Isaak et al 2016a.…”

Section: Analysis and Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Big biology meets microclimatology: defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning

Isaak

Wenger

Young

2017

Ecological Applications

119

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Temperature profoundly affects ecology, a fact ever more evident as the ability to measure thermal environments increases and global changes alter these environments. The spatial structure of thermalscapes is especially relevant to the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms, but the ability to describe biothermal relationships at extents and grains relevant to conservation planning has been limited by small or sparse data sets. Here, we combine a large occurrence database of >23 000 aquatic species surveys with stream microclimate scenarios supported by an equally large temperature database for a 149 000-km mountain stream network to describe thermal relationships for 14 fish and amphibian species. Species occurrence probabilities peaked across a wide range of temperatures (7.0-18.8°C) but distinct warm- or cold-edge distribution boundaries were apparent for all species and represented environments where populations may be most sensitive to thermal changes. Warm-edge boundary temperatures for a native species of conservation concern were used with geospatial data sets and a habitat occupancy model to highlight subsets of the network where conservation measures could benefit local populations by maintaining cool temperatures. Linking that strategic approach to local estimates of habitat impairment remains a key challenge but is also an opportunity to build relationships and develop synergies between the research, management, and regulatory communities. As with any data mining or species distribution modeling exercise, care is required in analysis and interpretation of results, but the use of large biological data sets with accurate microclimate scenarios can provide valuable information about the thermal ecology of many ectotherms and a spatially explicit way of guiding conservation investments.

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“…Furthermore, recent studies also have discussed water temperature change and its effect due to climate change on the aquatic environment such as ecosystem productivity [31,32] and biodiversity [24,33,34]. In particular, cold water species are studied more extensively because several climate change scenarios indicate that some rivers may approach their upper tolerance limit [35][36][37]. For instance, Johnson and Almlöf [34] Johnson and Almlöf [34] discussed the potential impact of temperature increases on the brook trout population in one of Lake Superior's tributary and Brown [24] shows the change in the exceedance of upper water temperature criteria, based on the climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summer Season Water Temperature Modeling under the Climate Change: Case Study for Fourchue River, Quebec, Canada

Kwak¹,

St‐Hilaire

Chebana

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:It is accepted that human-induced climate change is unavoidable and it will have effects on physical, chemical, and biological properties of aquatic habitats. This will be especially important for cold water fishes such as trout. The objective of this study is to simulate water temperature for future periods under the climate change situations. Future water temperature in the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, QC, Canada) were simulated by the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model, using meteorological inputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The result of the study indicated that water temperature in June will increase 0.2-0.7 • C and that in September, median water temperature could decrease by 0.2-1.1 • C. The rise in summer water temperature may be favorable to brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) growth, but several days over the Upper Incipient Lethal Temperature (UILT) are also likely to occur. Therefore, flow regulation procedures, including cold water releases from the Morin dam may have to be considered for the Fourchue River.

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Are brown trout replacing or displacing bull trout populations in a changing climate?

Cited by 51 publications

References 78 publications

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

Big biology meets microclimatology: defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning

Summer Season Water Temperature Modeling under the Climate Change: Case Study for Fourchue River, Quebec, Canada

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