Are economic arguments against immigration missing the boat? The fiscal effects of the Mariel Boatlift

Abstract

Opponents of migration argue that natives bear the fiscal costs of immigration. Estimates suggest the longrun fiscal effect of immigration for local governments is negative, largely due to the costs of educating immigrant children. We test whether migration affects local government fiscal outcomes using a synthetic control method and the 1980 Mariel Boatlift as a natural experiment. We find no effect of the mass influx of migrants to Miami on various fiscal outcome measures, suggesting concerns over the fiscal effects of immigration are "missing the boat."