Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities

Cassette, Aurélie; Farvaque, Étienne

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2013.12.022

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…However, Blais and Nadeau (1992), Kiewiet and Szalaky (1996) and Dickson and Yu (1997) found that conservative parties present lower debt levels. Balaguer-Coll et al (2015), Brender (2003) and Cassette and Farvaque (2014) showed that high debt levels negatively affect governments' re-election probabilities.…”

Section: Political Ideology (Sign)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of women’s leadership in local governments: the case of Spain

Balaguer-Coll

Ivanova-Toneva

2021

International Public Management Journal

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The main objective of this paper is to analyse whether the gender of the mayor and the municipal council members affects compliance with the principles of budgetary stability and financial sustainability contained in Organic Law 2/2012 on Budgetary Stability and Financial Sustainability. We find that in Spanish local governments during the period 2013-2016, the leadership of women mayors contributes to improving the financial situation of the local government. In particular, the presence of women mayors governing with a high proportion of female councillors increases the probability of compliance with regulations on budgetary stability, financial sustainability and the legal debt limit. Thus, the Law for Effective Equality of Women and Men favours compliance with the Law on Budgetary Stability and Financial Sustainability. In addition, the results show that in pre-electoral periods, women mayors are less likely to employ strategies designed to enhance their re-election chances.

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Section: Political Ideology (Sign)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of women’s leadership in local governments: the case of Spain

Balaguer-Coll

Ivanova-Toneva

2021

International Public Management Journal

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“…Using local or regional data to examine whether budget manipulation affects the incumbent's re-election chances, Akhmedov and Zhuravskaya (2004), Veiga and Veiga (2007b), Sakurai and Menezes-Filho (2008), Drazen and Eslava (2010), Aidt et al (2011), Jones et al (2012, Litschig and Morrison (2012), Cassette andFarvaque (2014), Balaguer-Coll et al (2015), Bracco et al (2015), and Repetto (2018) find a positive relationship between changing the spending composition of the budget (mostly in the way of spending more on capital expenditures, sometimes on current expenditures) and the probability of re-election. Klein (2010) and Chortareas et al (2016) report a positive effect at the local level too, but in terms of total spending rather than budget composition, whereas Brender (2003) finds no significant impact at all.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process

García

Hayo

2021

European Journal of Political Economy

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A widespread view in the 'political budget cycles' literature is that incumbent politicians seek to influence voters' perceptions of their competence and/or preferences by using the composition of the fiscal budget as a signalling tool. However, little is known about whether voters actually receive and perceive the signal in that way. To empirically assess the relevance of the signalling channel at the municipal level, we conducted a survey among 2,000 representative German citizens in 2018. Only a small fraction of voters feel well-informed about the fiscal budget signal and use the information it contains to decide whether to vote for the incumbent politician. Persons paying more attention to the signal sent by local politicians live in smaller municipalities, are more satisfied with their economic situation, are more educated, and do not feel that they are being electorally targeted. Our analysis suggests that the municipal voting decision, at least in Germany, is a more complex process than is commonly assumed in political budget cycle models.

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“…For instance, in 1990, the banking crisis in Sweden plummeted private investment by 35%, with GDP falling for three consecutive years, a total of −5.1% in 1991-1993, and overall the country went into a significant recession during the same period (Englund, 2016;Stockhammar & Österholm, 2016). The studies by Cassette and Farvaque (2014), Kirikkaleli and Onyibor (2020), and Kirikkaleli (2016) have reported adverse effects of financial risk from the post-World War II period until the present time, the most significant challenge faced by the country's economy. On the contrary, Arcand and Fafchamps (2012), Cecchetti and Kharroubi (2012), and Rousseau and Wachtel (2011), among other studies, have failed to find a definite link between financial risk and economic stability.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the post-World War II period until the present time, studies have argued that the most significant challenge faced by the global economy and mainly Europe and Africa is a global economic crisis (Cassette & Farvaque, 2014). A similar situation is the Arab Spring, which escalated protests and suspended constitution across the Northern African countries (Acemoglu et al, 2018;Hermida et al, 2014).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Domestic Risks and Arab Spring on Economic Risk in Northern African Countries: Findings From the First- and Second-Generation Panel Approaches

Kırıkkaleli

Torun

Sowah

2020

The Review of Black Political Economy

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For decades, domestic risks belonged to the category of issues that are difficult to understand because information is fragmented or incomplete. However, paradoxically it has been suggested by many researchers that domestic risks involve complex combinations of structural and institutional weakness, bad governance, and regional contagion wrapped in a paradigm of high levels of trade, capital, and information flows, resulting in economic risk. This study employ first- and second-generation panel-based estimators—Westerlund cointegration, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and dynamic common correlated effects mean group (D-CCEMG)—to explore both short-run and long-run nexus between domestic risks and economic risks in Northern African countries from 1997Q2 to 2018Q4. To our knowledge, no study has applied these econometric techniques to investigate interlink-ages among domestic risks, economic risks, and as well as including dummy variable of Arab Spring in Northern African countries. Our empirical findings reveal that (a) financial and political stabilities positively affect economic stability, and (b) Arab Spring negatively affected economic stability. Our analysis confirms that domestic risks involve institutional weakness and bad governance region in regional contagion. Given this new insight on economic risk, policymakers should develop a strong financial system that promotes economic growth.

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Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities

Cited by 16 publications

References 12 publications

The impact of women’s leadership in local governments: the case of Spain

The impact of women’s leadership in local governments: the case of Spain

Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process

The Effect of Domestic Risks and Arab Spring on Economic Risk in Northern African Countries: Findings From the First- and Second-Generation Panel Approaches

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