Coastal wetlands (marshes and mangroves) are among the most valuable ecosystems on the planet (Barbier, 2019; Costanza et al., 2014), yet they are threatened by accelerated sea-level rise and other human impacts. Coastal wetlands occupy extensive portions of low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs; commonly defined as <10 m above mean sea level) that are home to all or portions of 21 of the 33 largest megacities (population >10 million) worldwide (https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3799524). Recent work has shown that LECZs are considerably lower in elevation than previously assumed (Kulp & Strauss, 2019) and several LECZs may subside more rapidly than commonly thought (Keogh & Törnqvist, 2019). Given that the acceleration of global sea-level rise will continue well into the future (Oppenheimer et al., 2019), predicting the extent and health of coastal wetlands is a topic of great import. A recent global-scale prediction of coastal wetland extent for the remainder of this century (Schuerch et al., 2018) has suggested that even under pessimistic climate scenarios, and provided that there is room for landward migration, coastal wetland area will generally increase, echoing previous model studies that have suggested that coastal marshes can keep up with rates of sea-level rise as high as 10-50 mm yr −1 (Kirwan et al., 2016). These results stand in stark contrast with studies based on the geologic record that show tipping points for marsh drowning in the Mississippi Delta (USA) at rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) of ∼3 mm yr −1 (Törnqvist et al., 2020) and an inability of mangroves worldwide to initiate sustained accretion when rates of RSLR exceed ∼6 mm yr −1 (Saintilan et al., 2020). The main purpose of this Commentary is to examine these seemingly contradictory outcomes. We first discuss the concept of accommodation that plays an increasingly important role in models that seek to predict coastal wetland change until the end of this century (e.g., Schuerch et al., 2018). We then make the case that these models must be constrained by the stratigraphic record (i.e., observations over centennial to millennial timescales) and we discuss key reasons why instrumental observations (i.e., annual to decadal timescales) cannot fully capture the outcome Abstract Recent studies have produced conflicting results as to whether coastal wetlands can keep up with present-day and future sea-level rise. The stratigraphic record shows that threshold rates for coastal wetland submergence or retreat are lower than what instrumental records suggest, with wetland extent that shrinks considerably under high rates of sea-level rise. These apparent conflicts can be reconciled by recognizing that many coastal wetlands still possess sufficient elevation capital to cope with sea-level rise, and that processes like sediment compaction, ponding, and wave erosion require multidecadal or longer timescales to drive wetland loss that is in many cases inevitable. Plain Language Summary The rapid, climate-driven acceleration of global sea level thr...