Are Fair Weather Fans Affected by Weather? Rainfall, Habit Formation and Live Game Attendance

Abstract

We analyze habit formation in sports attendance utilizing rainfall as an unexpected, transitory shock to attendance costs. Using attendance data from Major League Baseball (MLB) and NOAA weather data, we analyze the impact of variation in game day weather conditions on current and future MLB attendance. The empirical strategy permits identification of both the formation and persistence of habit from exogenous weather shocks. Past adverse weather shocks increase future attendance by about 200 fans per game. Our study contributes to the literature developing empirical evidence of habit formation in the field and provides policy implications for optimal ticket pricing strategies.

Stadium Attendance Demand Research: A Scoping Review

“…As such, there already exists a significant body of literature on the question of whether television broadcasts serve as a substitute for stadium attendance (e.g., S. Allan, 2004; Baimbridge et al, 1996; Barajas et al, 2019; Kringstad et al, 2018; Nielsen et al, 2019), whether promotions such as bobblehead giveaways, fireworks, and even marching bands, are effective in increasing stadium attendance demand (e.g., Boyd & Krehbiel, 2003; Kappe et al, 2014; McDonald & Rascher, 2000; Natke & Thomas, 2019; Paul et al, 2013), and whether consumer preferences alter in the aftermath of exogenous shocks as diverse as a corruption scandal (Buraimo et al, 2016), an influenza virus outbreak (Gitter, 2017), college football player protests (Watanabe et al, 2019), increasing terror alert levels (Kalist, 2010), or the announcement of performance-enhancing drug violations (Cisyk & Courty, 2017). Interestingly, though frequently included as control variables, only a few authors have centered their study on the potential effects of match fixtures/scheduling (Goller & Krumer, 2020; Krumer, 2020; Paul et al, 2004) or both environmental effects and the weather (e.g., Cairns, 1984; Ge et al, 2020; Ito et al, 2016). Among the latter, Watanabe et al (2019), for instance, explored the potential role of air pollution in shaping stadium attendance demand in the Chinese Super League, thus paving an interesting new way towards a better understanding of how spectators respond to potential health threats on matchday – a theme that will certainly gain more importance in the future (e.g., Reade et al, 2020b).…”

“…as diverse as a corruption scandal (Buraimo et al, 2016), an influenza virus outbreak (Gitter, 2017), college football player protests , increasing terror alert levels (Kalist, 2010), or the announcement of performance-enhancing drug violations (Cisyk & Courty, 2017). Interestingly, though frequently included as control variables, only a few authors have centered their study on the potential effects of match fixtures/scheduling (Goller & Krumer, 2020;Krumer, 2020;Paul et al, 2004) or both environmental effects and the weather (e.g., Cairns, 1984;Ge et al, 2020;Ito et al, 2016). Among the latter, Watanabe et al 2019, for instance, explored the potential role of air pollution in shaping stadium attendance demand in the Chinese Super League, thus paving an interesting new way towards a better understanding of how spectators respond to potential health threats on matchday -a theme that will certainly gain more importance in the future (e.g., Reade et al, 2020b).…”

“…In terms of dominant themes, we note that most JSE authors, roughly three out of four, seem to have drafted their manuscript with a specific theme in mind, a third of them explicitly referring to the concept of competitive balance/intensity and the resulting match outcome uncertainty (e.g., Andreff & Scelles, 2015;Cox, 2018;Meehan et al, 2007). Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that most manuscripts published in the JSE center around the effect of sporting characteristics on spectator interest, with only a few manuscript titles explicitly referring to consumer preferences (e.g., Cisyk & Courty, 2017), economic factors (e.g., Wallrafen et al, 2019), and the quality of viewing (e.g., Ge et al, 2020).…”

“…Somewhat similarly, about 84% of all manuscripts, analyzed data from baseball and football/soccer (13 manuscripts each), with only a handful of manuscripts exploring other sports; for instance, basketball (e.g., Jane, 2016), hockey (Coates & Humphreys, 2012), and racing (Berkowitz et al, 2011). As such, currently, about every third stadium attendance demand study published in the JSE marks an exploration of the US baseball market (e.g., Ge et al, 2020; Lemke & Tlhokwane, 2010; Ormiston, 2014).…”

Impacts of the Great Recession on sport: evidence from English Football League attendance demand

“…The direct effects of recession on attendance demand through adverse labour market conditions are potentially reinforced by breaks in consumption habit. Sports fans exhibit considerable habit persistence in their active support (Borland 1987;Forrest and Simmons, 2006;Ge et al, 2020). Recessions can lead to short-term lack of motivation to attend sporting events which eventually turns into permanent absence from stadia as fans reassess their leisure spending patterns.…”