Are Irish voters moving to the left?

Abstract

The Irish party system has been an outlier in comparative politics. Ireland never had a left-right divide in parliament, and for decades, the dominant centrist political parties competed around a centre-right policy agenda. The absence of an explicit left-right divide in party competition suggested that Irish voters, on average, occupy centre-right policy preferences. Combining survey data since 1973 and all Irish election studies between 2002 and 2020, we show that the average Irish voter now leans to the centre-left. We also show that income has recently emerged as a predictor of left-right self-placement, and that left-right positions increasingly structure vote choice. These patterns hold when using policy preferences on taxes, spending, and government interventions to reduce inequality as alternative indicators. We outline potential explanations for this leftward shift, and conclude that these developments might be anchored in economic inequalities and the left populist strategies of Sinn Féin.

Attitudes towards immigration and refugees in Ireland: Understanding recent trends and drivers

“…According to an experiment, those who identify as politically left wing are more opposed to protests against housing people seeking protection, and more in favour of policy supports for refugees (Chapter 5). This has been consistently found in international literature, and may indicate the emergence of a left-right split in attitudes to immigrants in Ireland, consistent with Müller and Regan (2021) finding that left-right positions increasingly structure voter choice in Ireland.…”

“…Leftwing respondents are more supportive than either centrists or liberal/right-wing respondents on policy support with no condition or with pressure on services, and they are more opposed to online protests against humanitarian migrants. This suggests a left-right split may be emerging in attitudes to immigrants in Ireland, consistent with Müller and Regan (2021) finding that left-right positions increasingly structure voter choice.…”

“…This distinction between Ireland and other countries has also been found with respect to other social attitudes, (Fahey et al, 2005) and is typically attributed to the lack of a left-right divide in Irish politics. However, some recent evidence indicates that this may be changing, with Müller and Regan (2021) finding that left-right positions increasingly structure voter choice. This has the potential to strengthen the association between left-right alignment and attitudes to immigration in Ireland.…”

Experimental tests of public support for disability policy

“…The control condition of the policy statement experiment, which would be a more typical formulation, suggested those with higher educational attainment are more supportive of assistance with the cost of living than their peers with lower educational attainment, whereas when presented the budget allocation trade-off the groups did not differ. These differences by educational attainment may reflect a greater tendency for those on higher incomes to oppose redistributive fiscal policies in general (Müller and Regan, 2021).…”

Trade Unions in the European Union

“…Another aspect that might influence the future relationship between the union movement and politics in Ireland is the progressive re-alignment of the Irish political system towards a more traditional left-right divide, which has become evident over the past decade. What is more, the average Irish voter now leans towards the centre-left (Müller and Regan 2021). Although a viable left-wing coalition has not yet emerged, this might lead to changes in Irish unions' political involvement.…”