Are Lay Expectations of Inflation Based on Recall of Specific Prices? If so, How and Under What Conditions?

Niu, Xuming; Harvey, Nigel

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4326565

“…As a result, differences in consumption patterns across consumers and input costs across firms matter relatively less. 7 See Cavallo et al (2017), Niu and Harvey (2023) and Coibion et al (2020) for further empirical evidence.…”

Section: Understanding the Facts And Transitions Across Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New age of central banking in emerging markets

Kónya,

Carstens,

Takáts

et al. 2023

1

0

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We are here today to award the degree of Doctor Honoris Causa to Dr. Augustin Carstens. Please allow me to briefly explain why Corvinus University found Dr. Carsens, a distinguished scholar, policymaker, and public figure, worthy of the title.Dr. Carstens was born in Mexico, where he obtained his bachelor's degree in economics at the Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology. He then moved to the United States, where he completed his Ph.D. in Economics at one of the world's leading programs at the University of Chicago. The Chicago Economics Department is famous for its rigorous analytical training and incredible intellectual environment for scholarly and policy discussions. These traits are useful not only in academic research but also in economic policymaking, an area where Dr. Carstens found his calling.After completing the Ph.D., he moved back to his native Mexico, where he started his career at the Central Bank of Mexico. He quickly rose through its ranks, becoming treasurer and then Director General of Economic Research, responsible for steering bank policy after the infamous Tequila Crisis in the mid-1990s. He wrote several influential articles about the impact of the crisis on the Mexican economy.After a three-year role at the International Monetary Fund as a deputy managing director, Dr. Carstens again returned to Mexico and was appointed Secretary of Finance.

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“…For consumption-savings decisions, seeBachmann et al (2015),Crump et al (2022), andRyngaert (2022); for wage-price spirals, seeBlanchard (1986) andLorenzoni and Werning (2023).2 D'Acunto et al (2022) find that low-IQ respondents, especially, seem to have limited understanding of the concept of aggregate inflation; low-IQ respondents report that they associate inflation with price changes of specific salient goods rather than macroeconomic variables, and they have difficulty with probabilistic terms. Potential salient cues include extreme price movements (Bruine deBruin et al, 2011), changes in grocery and gas prices(Binder, 2018;Cavallo et al, 2017;D'Acunto et al, 2021), weighting consumption categories with the frequency of purchases(Georganas et al, 2014), and, under conditions with rapid price increases in specific categories, the category-specific inflation rates(Niu and Harvey, 2023).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Dietrich,

Knotek,

Myrseth

et al. 2023

SSRN Journal

0

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“…For consumption-savings decisions, seeBachmann et al (2015),Crump et al (2022), andRyngaert (2022); for wage-price spirals, seeBlanchard (1986) andLorenzoni and Werning (2023).2 D'Acunto et al (2022) find that low-IQ respondents, especially, seem to have limited understanding of the concept of aggregate inflation; low-IQ respondents report that they associate inflation with price changes of specific salient goods rather than macroeconomic variables, and they have difficulty with probabilistic terms. Potential salient cues include extreme price movements (Bruine deBruin et al, 2011), changes in grocery and gas prices(Binder, 2018;Cavallo et al, 2017;D'Acunto et al, 2021), weighting consumption categories with the frequency of purchases(Georganas et al, 2014), and, under conditions with rapid price increases in specific categories, the category-specific inflation rates(Niu and Harvey, 2023).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%