Are mature smokers misinformed?

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities.

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“… 9 See, however, Khwaja, Silverman & Sloan (2007) for the view that smokers accurately estimate their survival chances. …”

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confidence: 99%

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys

2009

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“…In the sample as a decades, to the dissemination of information in the mass media. (9,16) One study that investigated the knowledge regarding the risk factors (smoking, drinking excessive alcohol, having a sedentary lifestyle and eating an unhealthy diet) for the development of cancer and heart diseases showed that more than 60% of the population studied recognized only smoking as a risk factor. However, there are still myths regarding the individual risk for the development of cancer.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Avaliação do conhecimento sobre tabagismo em pacientes internados

et al. 2010

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Objective: To identify characteristics related to smoking in hospitalized patients and to assess the knowledge that such patients have regarding the relationship between nicotine dependence and smoking-related diseases. Methods: The study included 186 patients (males, 59%; mean age, 51.3 ± 16.8 years) who were evaluated regarding demographic characteristics, diagnosis at admission, smoking history and passive smoke exposure. All of the patients completed a questionnaire regarding their knowledge of the relationship between smoking and disease. Results: Of the 186 patients, 42 (22.6%) were smokers, 64 (34.4%) were former smokers and 80 (43%) stated they were never smokers; 136 (73%) reported passive smoke exposure. In the sample as a whole, 21.5% of the patients were diagnosed with a smoking-related disease at admission, compared with 39% of those who were smokers or former smokers. The proportion of individuals who were unaware of the relationship between smoking and the cause of hospitalization was similar among current smokers and former smokers (56% and 65%, respectively). Only 19% of the current smokers believed that smoking might have affected their health, compared with 32% of the former smokers (p = 0.22). The proportion of individuals who believed that quitting smoking depends on willpower was significantly higher among former smokers and never smokers than among current smokers (64% and 53%, respectively, vs. 24%; p < 0.001 and p = 0.008). Although 96% of the patients believed that smoking causes dependence, only 60% identified smoking as a disease. Conclusions: This study shows the disconnect between the recognition of smoking as a cause of dependence and the recognition of smoking as a disease, as well as the general lack of awareness that former and current smoking constitute a risk factor for the development and progression of disease. Keywords:Smoking; Tobacco use disorder; Smoking cessation. ResumoObjetivo: Determinar características relacionadas ao tabagismo e avaliar o conhecimento sobre a relação entre dependência nicotínica e doenças relacionadas ao tabaco em pacientes internados. Métodos: Foram avaliados em 186 pacientes (59% de homens; média de idade = 51,3 ± 16,8 anos) internados em um hospital público quanto a características demográficas, diagnóstico de internação, história tabágica e tabagismo passivo. Todos os pacientes responderam um questionário sobre o conhecimento da relação tabagismo/doença. Resultados: Dos 186 pacientes, 42 (22,6%) eram fumantes, 64 (34,4%) eram ex-tabagistas e 80 (43%) referiam nunca ter fumado; 136 (73%) referiam exposição passiva ao fumo. O diagnóstico de admissão foi o de doença possivelmente relacionada ao tabaco em 21,5% dos pacientes e em 39% dos fumantes ativos e ex-fumantes. A proporção de fumantes e ex-fumantes que não conheciam a associação entre o tabagismo e a causa de internação foi similar (56% vs. 65%). Apenas 19% dos fumantes e 32% dos ex-fumantes acreditavam que o tabagismo tivesse afetado sua saúde (p = 0,22). A proporção de ex-fumantes ...

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“…There is empirical evidence indicating that, if anything, smokers overestimate the probability that smoking will lead to adverse health outcomes and death Costa-Font and Rovira 2005;Khwaja et al 2009;Liu and Hsieh 1995;Viscusi 1990;1991;Viscusi et al 2000). Most of this evidence, however, which directly elicits probabilities of adverse health outcomes is for persons much older than the age at which the smoking habit is typically initiated.…”

Section: Previous Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, Hanson and Logue's argument was based on a conjecture which lacks empirical support. For example, Khwaja et al (2009), in an analysis of responses of older persons to subjective probability questions about mortality, report no meaningful difference in responses when the question is phrased in the third versus the second person. 9 Economic evidence on individuals' over-optimism is mixed.…”

Section: Previous Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%