Are Short‐lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long‐Lasting Jobs?*

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject shortlived jobs. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor mayJEL Code: C15, C41, J62, J64.

The trend over time of the gender wage gap in Italy

“…Moreover, unions are reluctant to accept temporary contracts or part-time contracts as unions often oppose the growth of forms of employment which can be exploited by employers as a mere buffer against the business cycle, or which go towards an overall reduction of working time (Delsen, 1995;Barling and Gallagher, 1996). 26 For example, Cockx and Picchio (2011) find that for Belgian youth short-lived jobs are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs especially for more disadvantaged individuals, e.g. the lower educated and those living in areas where the unemployment rate is higher.…”

Youth unemployment

“…7 Based on a sample of more than 15,000 long-term unemployed school-leavers in Belgium, these researchers fi nd that the majority of short-lived jobs are not dead ends but stepping stones to long-lasting jobs. By accepting a job that lasts at most one quarter instead of continuing job search for a longer-lasting job, the probability of entering a long-lasting job within two years increases by 13.4 percentage points for men and by 9.5 percentage points for women.…”

Labor-Market Scars When Youth Unemployment is Extremely High: Evidence from Macedonia

“…Gregg and Tominey (2005) find a wage scar from early unemployment experience in Britain of 12-15% at age of 42. Cockx and Picchio (2012) focus on young individuals who are already long-term unemployed in Belgium and find that prolonging unemployment significantly reduces employment probability, but not the wage; the effect is mainly the result of negative signaling. The study of Nilsen and Reiso (2011) also focuses on young individuals in Norway and, using propensity score matching, it finds long-term scars from unemployment (about 10 p.p.…”

“…The main line of critique to these approaches is that assumptions made about the functional form are very strong (for instance, Lancaster, 1990). Cockx and Picchio (2012) use multivariate duration model that controls for selection on observables and unobservables, and allows for lagged state and duration dependence. They integrate the analysis of wages within this framework.…”