Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

“…First, prior research has found that people often exhibit overconfidence-that is, they routinely believe that they are better than others, even when they are not (for reviews, see Alicke &Govorun, 2005 andDunning et al, 2004). For example, many people overestimate the superiority of their work performance (Cross, 1977;Haun, Zeringue, Leach, & Foley, 2000;Zenger, 1992), social skills (College Board, 1976-1977Lewinsohn, Mischel, Chaplin, & Barton, 1980;Swann & Gill, 1997), and physical talents (Dunning, Meyerowitz, & Holzberg, 1989;Svenson, 1981; for exceptions, see Kruger, 1999;Moore, 2007). Such overconfidence persists even when the stakes are high and individuals have incentives to estimate their relative abilities accurately (Ehrlinger, Johnson, Banner, Dunning, & Kruger, 2008;Hoelzl & Rustichini, 2005;Williams & Gilovich, 2008).…”

Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard–easy effect.

“…6 We controlled for difficulty by means of a simple matching procedure for item samples with proportions correct less than .7 (hard samples). For each representative item sample with a proportion correct less than .7, we entered all selected item sam-5 Because there were relatively more studies with Swedish participants among the representative samples and more studies with U.S. participants among the selected samples, one might object that the observed difference reflects cultural differences, as reported by Svenson (1981). There was no significant difference between the data for representative item samples collected by Swedish participants and non-Swedish participants, nor for selected item samples.…”

Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey

“…owning own home, living past 80) and less likely to experience negative events (being fired, getting cancer). Illustrating overconfidence in one's own skills, Svenson (1981) finds that 82% of a sample of students placed themselves in the top 30% in terms of driving safety.…”