The COVID-19 pandemic threatens people’s physical, mental, and economic well-being. We investigated if the pandemic’s onset caused changes in political attitudes. Theories of threat and politics predict that the pandemic’s onset will change people’s attitudes by causing people to adopt more conservative attitudes, more culturally conservative attitudes, or more extreme attitudes. We comprehensively tested the external validity of these predictions by estimating the causal effect of the pandemic’s onset on 84 political attitudes and 8 perceived threats using fine-grained repeated cross-sectional data (Study 1, N = 232,684) and panel data (Study 2, N = 552) collected in the United States. Although the pandemic’s onset caused feelings of threat, the onset only caused limited attitude change. Only 6 attitudes shifted in a conservative direction and none of these shifts were for culturally conservative attitudes. Only 4 attitudes became more extreme. The most consistent finding was that most attitudes did not change. The reliable changes that did emerge were typically in a liberal direction. These were on social welfare and healthcare related attitudes, suggesting that people adopted attitudes that would help directly address the healthcare and economic threats of the pandemic. The data suggest that the prominent theories of threat and politics did not make accurate predictions for a major societal threat. This calls into question the generalizability of these theories to a threatening event which scholars and policy makers want to make predictions about. Our results highlight the necessity of testing psychological theories’ predictive powers in real life circumstances.