Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

Dunant, Alexandre

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.685301

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 30 publications

(37 reference statements)

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“…Imagination from existing disaster and climate change studies suggests several trajectories to systemic risk. Hazard-prone areas susceptible to multiple hazards often experience cascading events, such as the excessive rainfall in northern Pakistan in 2016 that led to devastating flooding and landslides [6][7][8]. Additionally, large-scale natural hazard events can release energy equivalent to tens of thousands of Hiroshima atomic bombs, causing systemic infrastructure failures and widespread fatalities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Multi-hazard Interaction and Impact on Small Islands Community: Insights from an Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

Lessy,

Lassa,

Zander

2024

Preprint

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Current trends in systemic risk literature provide new insights into multi-hazard risks that interact and compound with built environments, creating more significant impacts on socio-economic and human systems. Recurrent natural hazards and extreme weather events are more likely to compound and cascade into more impactful events, especially in vulnerable societies. In small-island communities (SICS), including large archipelagos and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the long-term impact of multi-, compounding-, and cascading-hazards (MCC hazards) can result in persistent vulnerability and residual risks. This is due to delayed responses, limited resources, poverty, fewer evacuation options, and inadequate markets and infrastructure. Using Ternate, a densely populated small volcanic island in North Maluku, Indonesia, as a case study, this paper assesses the impacts of seven types of natural hazards: flash floods, landslides, extreme weather, extreme waves and abrasion, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. The research focuses on the multi-hazard impact on population, land use, and infrastructure exposures in 60 villages in Ternate. The findings highlight population density, land use, and infrastructure exposure to multi-hazard risks, providing valuable information on potential losses in future hazard events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Multi-hazard Interaction and Impact on Small Islands Community: Insights from an Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

Lessy,

Lassa,

Zander

2024

Preprint

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Multi-hazard zoning for national scale population risk mapping: a pilot study in Bhutan Himalaya

Tempa

Yuden

2023

Geoenviron Disasters

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Landslides, floods, fires, windstorms, hailstorms, and earthquakes are major dangers in Bhutan due to historical events and their potential damage. At present, systematic collection of data is scarce and no multi-hazard zoning is reported in the existing literature for Bhutan. In addition, for proper disaster management, recognizing the existence of the hazards and identifying the vulnerable areas are the first important tasks for any multi-hazard risk studies. To fill the gap, the main objective of this study is to prepare the multi-hazard zoning and assess the multi-hazard population risk for Bhutan on seven historical hazard events. To achieve this, we first collected data on the historical events of different periods based on the data availability and created a district-level database. A total of 1224 hazard events were retrieved. We then calculated the weighted score for individual hazards based on the number of occurrences and the degree of impact through a multi-criteria decision analysis model (MCDA) using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The district-wise individual hazard scores are then obtained using the weighted scores. The total hazard score (THS) was aggregated and normalized to obtain the district-wise multi-hazard scores. A multi-hazard zoning map was created in the open-source software QGIS, highlighting 70% of districts with moderate to severe multi-hazard vulnerability. Considering the population distribution in each district at the local levels, the multi-hazard score is integrated and the multi-hazard population risk is mapped.

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Understanding Multi-Hazard Interactions and Impacts on Small-Island Communities: Insights from the Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

Lessy,

Lassa,

Zander

2024

Sustainability

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Drawing on a case study from Ternate Island, a densely populated volcanic island in Eastern Indonesia, this research illustrates how multi-hazards and extreme weather events are likely to compound and cascade, with serious consequences for sustainable development in small island context. At the heart of Ternate Island sits the active Gamalama volcano, posing a constant eruption threat. Its location within the Ring of Fire further exposes the island to the risks of tsunamis and earthquakes. Additionally, the island’s physical features make it highly susceptible to flooding, landslides, and windstorms. Rapid urbanization has led to significant coastal alterations, increasing exposure to hazards. Ternate’s small-island characteristics include limited resources, few evacuation options, vulnerable infrastructure, and inadequate resilience planning. Combining GIS multi-hazard mapping with a structured survey in 60 villages in Ternate, this case study investigates the multi-hazard exposure faced by the local population and land coverage. The findings suggest significant gaps between village chiefs’ perceptions of the types of hazards and the multi-hazard assessment in each village. Out of 60 village chiefs surveyed, 42 (70%) are aware of earthquake risks, 17 (28%) recognize tsunami threats, and 39 see volcanoes as a danger. GIS assessments show that earthquakes could impact all villages, tsunamis could affect 46 villages (77%), and volcanoes could threaten 39 villages. The hazard map indicates that 32 villages are at risk of flash floods and 37 are at risk of landslides, and extreme weather could affect all villages. Additionally, 42 coastal villages on Ternate Island face potential extreme wave and abrasion disasters, but only 18 chiefs acknowledge extreme weather as a threat. The paper argues that addressing the cognitive biases reflected in the perceptions of community leaders requires transdisciplinary dialogue and engagement.

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Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

Cited by 3 publications

References 30 publications

Understanding Multi-hazard Interaction and Impact on Small Islands Community: Insights from an Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

Understanding Multi-hazard Interaction and Impact on Small Islands Community: Insights from an Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

Multi-hazard zoning for national scale population risk mapping: a pilot study in Bhutan Himalaya

Understanding Multi-Hazard Interactions and Impacts on Small-Island Communities: Insights from the Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

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