Area Dose Response of Prevalent Childhood Thyroid Cancers after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Kato, T

doi:10.31487/j.cor.2019.06.16

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Cancers that grow more than 5 mm in diameter over a 2-year period, such as those childhood thyroid cancers detected in second-round screening in Fukushima, fall outside the category of overdiagnosis [8]. This has also been reported by Kato [59,60], Yamamoto et al [61], and Toki et al [62] However, the SHAMISEN review paper [5] erroneously indicates that no radiationrelated risks were demonstrated in those papers [59][60][61][62].…”

Section: Lessons Learned From Fukushimamentioning

confidence: 93%

Demonstrating the undermining of science and health policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident by applying the Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods

2022

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It is well known that science can be misused to hinder the resolution (i.e., the elimination and/or control) of a health problem. To recognize distorted and misapplied epidemiological science, a 33-item “Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods” (hereinafter, the Toolkit) was published in 2021. Applying the Toolkit, we critically evaluated a review paper entitled, “Lessons learned from Chernobyl and Fukushima on thyroid cancer screening and recommendations in the case of a future nuclear accident” in Environment International in 2021, published by the SHAMISEN (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical and Health Surveillance) international expert consortium. The article highlighted the claim that overdiagnosis of childhood thyroid cancers greatly increased the number of cases detected in ultrasound thyroid screening following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. However, the reasons cited in the SHAMISEN review paper for overdiagnosis in mass screening lacked important information about the high incidence of thyroid cancers after the accident. The SHAMISEN review paper ignored published studies of screening results in unexposed areas, and included an invalid comparison of screenings among children with screenings among adults. The review omitted the actual state of screening in Fukushima after the nuclear accident, in which only nodules > 5 mm in diameter were examined. The growth rate of thyroid cancers was not slow, as emphasized in the SHAMISEN review paper; evidence shows that cancers detected in second-round screening grew to more than 5 mm in diameter over a 2-year period. The SHAMISEN consortium used an unfounded overdiagnosis hypothesis and misguided evidence to refute that the excess incidence of thyroid cancer was attributable to the nuclear accident, despite the findings of ongoing ultrasound screening for thyroid cancer in Fukushima and around Chernobyl. By our evaluation, the SHAMISEN review paper includes 20 of the 33 items in the Toolkit that demonstrate the misuse of epidemiology. The International Agency for Research on Cancer meeting in 2017 and its publication cited in the SHAMISEN review paper includes 12 of the 33 items in the Toolkit. Finally, we recommend a few enhancements to the Toolkit to increase its utility.

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Section: Lessons Learned From Fukushimamentioning

confidence: 93%

Demonstrating the undermining of science and health policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident by applying the Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods

2022

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“…Three research groups showed associations between area dose and thyroid cancer incidence in the 2nd round and the 1st +2nd round [6][7][8][9]. Kato found high associations between ares dose and childhood thyroid cancer in the 2nd and 1st+2nd rounds [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Individual Dose Response and Radiation Origin of Childhood and Adolescent Thyroid Cancer in Fukushima, Japan

Kato¹,

Yamada²

2022

COR

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Background: After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011, thyroid ultrasound screening was carried out as part of the Fukushima health management survey (FHMS) on all residents of ages≤18 years at the accident. The results of the 1st (2011-2013) and 2nd (2014-2015) round screening showed dozens of times excess thyroid cancer detection compared to the expected from the cancer registry. Both FHMS and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) summarized that thyroid cancer cases detected in Fukushima were unlikely to be attributed to radiation exposure from the absence of dose-response relation. We elucidated the response of thyroid cancer incidence to individual external doses and found the dominant radiation effect on the increased thyroid cancer incidence after the accident. Method: Association between average individual external dose based on FHMS basic survey and thyroid cancer incidence rate of dose groups was analysed by the linear regression analysis. Thyroid dose estimated in UNSCEAR 2020/2021 for 10-year-old children was used for comparison. Results: Incidence proportions of dose groups in the 2nd round showed a linear response to mean individual external dose under 2.5 mSv range. A rough estimate of the excess relative risk per gray (Gy) was ERR/Gy =213 (95%CI: 129, 297) (p=0.02). Conclusion: Childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer in Fukushima was associated with individual external dose estimated in FHMS basic survey. Increased childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer in Fukushima could most probably be attributed to radiation exposure from the nuclear accident.

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“…Fukushima with the prevalence of low birth weight (< 2500 g). Therefore, previously reported epidemiological health detriment after Fukushima [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]53] can be generalized and corroborated.…”

Section: Our Investigation Disclosed a Positive Association Between Tmentioning

confidence: 54%

Spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition after Fukushima at the prefecture level in Japan: an ecological study

Scherb¹

2020

Preprint

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Background: Perinatal mortality increased in contaminated prefectures after the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents in Japan in 2011. Elevated numbers of surgeries for cryptorchidism and congenital heart malformations were observed throughout Japan from 2012 onward. The thyroid cancer detection rate (2011 to 2016) was associated with the dose-rate at the municipality level in the Fukushima prefecture. Since the birth weight is a simple and objective indicator for gestational development and pregnancy outcome, the question arises whether the annual birth weight distribution was distorted in a dose-rate-dependent manner across Japan after Fukushima. Data and Methods: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare provides prefecture-specific annual counts for 26.158 million live births from 1995 to 2018, of which 2.366 million births (9.04%) with weights < 2500g. Prefecture-specific spatiotemporal trends of the low birth weight proportions were analyzed. Logistic regression allowing for level-shifts from 2012 onward was employed to test whether those level-shifts were proportional to the prefecture-specific dose-rates derived from Cs-137 deposition in the 47 Japanese prefectures. Results: The overall trend of the low birth weight proportion (LBWp) in Japan discloses a jump in 2012 with a jump odds ratio (OR) 1.020, 95%-confidence interval (1.003,1.037), p-value 0.0225. A logistic regression of LBWp on the additional dose-rate after Fukushima adjusted for prefecture-specific spatiotemporal base-line trends yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.098 (1.058, 1.139), p-value < 0.0001. Further adjusting the logistic regression for the annual population size and physician density of the prefectures, as well as for the counts of the dead, the missing, and the evacuees due to earthquake and tsunami (as surrogate measures for medical infrastructure and stress) yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.109 (1.032, 1.191), p-value 0.0046. Conclusion: This study shows increased low birth weight prevalence related to Cs-137 deposition and the corresponding additional dose-rate in Japan from 2012 onward. Previous evidence suggesting compromised gestational development and pregnancy outcome under elevated environmental ionizing radiation exposure is corroborated.

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Area Dose Response of Prevalent Childhood Thyroid Cancers after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Cited by 8 publications

References 8 publications

Demonstrating the undermining of science and health policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident by applying the Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods

Demonstrating the undermining of science and health policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident by applying the Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods

Individual Dose Response and Radiation Origin of Childhood and Adolescent Thyroid Cancer in Fukushima, Japan

Spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition after Fukushima at the prefecture level in Japan: an ecological study

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