ARMA techniques for modelling tree-ring response to climate and for reconstructing variations of paleoclimates

Guiot, Joël

doi:10.1016/0304-3800(86)90038-4

Cited by 49 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The individual ring-width series were standardized by removing low-and intermediate-frequency variations, using the appropriate Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (AR(p) MA (q)) model [17,19]. A total of 31 different ARMA models were observed for the 128 single chronologies.…”

Section: Measurements and Statistical Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic signals in earlywood, latewood and total ring width of Corsican pine from western France

Lebourgeois¹

2000

Ann. For. Sci.

131

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-The influence of climatic factors on the growth of Corsican pine, growing at low elevation on acidic well-drained soils in western France, was evaluated by comparing annual earlywood, latewood and total ring indices with monthly temperature and precipitation data collected at Angers over the period . Latewood formation appeared to be more sensitive to climate than earlywood formation. Pointer years analysis and climatic models showed that summer drought was a major limiting-growth factor in the studied area. Extreme growth reductions specially highlighted the effects of low precipitation whereas response functions clearly underlined the importance of temperature. The climatic models accounted for 46%, 37% and 42% of the variability of total ring, earlywood and latewood indices, and suggested that the period of earlywood formation occurred mainly in early spring (May) whereas the growth of the latewood band was maximum in summer (July). Winter photosynthesis and the advance in the timing of the resumption of cambial activity were possible causes of the positive winter temperature correlation with earlywood. A cool and wet spring was also beneficial to growth as it affected the water balance of the trees at the beginning of the growing season. Prior October weather conditions also influenced growth, suggesting a preconditioning of the current year's growth by climate during the previous year. The regional climatic data revealed: no change in precipitation and thermal amplitude between 1950-1997; a significant (α = 0.01) increase in mean annual temperature of 1.1°C, mean annual minimum temperature (1.5°C), mean summer (July-August) temperature (2.2°C) and minimum summer temperature (2.3°C). By increasing summer water stress, a steady rise may induce growth decrease and probably forest decline in the next years. These results should be taken into account when predicting possible responses of Corsican pine plantations to global change Pinus nigra / climate / global change / pointer years / earlywood / latewood / ring width / Corsican pine Résumé -Analyse dendroclimatique du pin laricio de Corse dans l'ouest de la France. L'effet du climat sur la croissance de peuplements de pin laricio de Corse poussant à faible altitude sur des sols acides et bien drainés dans l'ouest de la France a été évalué en comparant la croissance annuelle du bois initial, du bois final et du cerne complet avec les données mensuelles de température et de précipitation collectées à Angers sur la période 1922-1991. La formation du bois final est apparue plus sensible au climat que celle du bois initial. L'analyse des années caractéristiques et des modèles climatiques a montré que la sécheresse estivale jouait un rôle majeur dans les variations inter-annuelles de croissance. Les réductions extrêmes de croissance sont liées aux faibles précipitations tandis que les fonctions de réponse soulignent le rôle de la température. Les modèles climatiques expliquent entre 37 et 46 % de la variabilité inter-annuelle de la croissance selon le compa...

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Section: Measurements and Statistical Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic signals in earlywood, latewood and total ring width of Corsican pine from western France

Lebourgeois¹

2000

Ann. For. Sci.

131

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“…These phases are (1) winter: no activity, (2) spring: leaf and root expansion, (3) summer: bolewood production, (4) early falls: carbohydratereserve accumulation, (5) late fall: leaf and root senescence. An original modeling procedure of carbon storage and mobilization was developed to reproduce the temporal autocorrelation structure of tree-ring series (Guiot, 1986). The annual increment of bole carbon reservoir at stand level is the modeled variable that will be compared with the observed dendrochronological tree-ring series.…”

Section: Ecophysiological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

2008

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Abstract. This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO 2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified.We modeled species growth with the help of a processbased model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE -MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO 2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production.Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO 2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century.While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century underCorrespondence to: C. Gaucherel (gaucherel@cirad.fr) the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO 2 fertilization effect.

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“…Des analyses en composantes principales suivies de classifications ascendantesh iérarchiqueso nt été réalisées sur les coefficientsd ec orrélation « bootstrapped » ( Guiot, 1991) en utilisant le logiciel SPlus 2000 de façon àm ettre en évidence les similitudes de réponse au climat entre espèces et conditions écologiques. L'analyse de la variation temporelled es relationsc erne-climat aé té effectuée àl 'aide de la fonction moving correlation intervals,é galement disponibled ans DENDROCLIM2002 sur les mêmes 46 périodes de 50 ans définies pour l'analyse des dérives climatiques.…”

Section: Analyse Des Relations Cerne-climatunclassified

Réponse au climat et à ses variations au cours du XXe siècle du Sapin pectiné, du Hêtre, des Pins noir, sylvestre et à crochets en contexte méditerranéen montagnard

Lebourgeois¹,

Mérian²,

Courdier

et al. 2012

Rev. For. Fr.

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ARMA techniques for modelling tree-ring response to climate and for reconstructing variations of paleoclimates

Cited by 49 publications

References 8 publications

Climatic signals in earlywood, latewood and total ring width of Corsican pine from western France

Climatic signals in earlywood, latewood and total ring width of Corsican pine from western France

Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

Réponse au climat et à ses variations au cours du XXe siècle du Sapin pectiné, du Hêtre, des Pins noir, sylvestre et à crochets en contexte méditerranéen montagnard

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