Artificial intelligence & future warfare: implications for international security

Abstract

Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) suggest that this emerging technology will have a deterministic and potentially transformative influence on military power, strategic competition, and world politics more broadly. After the initial surge of widespread speculation in the literature related to AI this article provides some much-needed specificity to the debate. It argues that left unchecked the uncertainties and vulnerabilities created by the rapid proliferation and diffusion of AI could become a significant potential source of instability and great power strategic rivalry. The article identifies several AI-related innovations and technological developments that will likely have substantial consequences for military applications from a tactical battlefield perspective to the strategic level.

Nordic lights? National AI policies for doing well by doing good

“…Reddy et al (2020), Woods (2016) and Ho et al (2019)), and the military applications of AI (see e.g. Maas (2019), Johnson (2019) and Lewis (2019)). This is not the place to give full accounts of these fields, but Calo (2018), for example, offers a comprehensive overview of AI policy dilemmas.…”

Transatlantic partnership on artificial intelligence: realities, perceptions and future implications

“…The advent of dronesthough they are not necessarily autonomous or AI-enabledand their wide range of uses in the battlefield has brought about new challenges to the IR discipline, both in practice and in theory. The current state of AI, however, has more implications than just the complexity posed by drones to shift the balance of power among the great state powers (Johnson, 2019;Payne, 2018). To explain how a power shift might occur through AI power, Horowitz investigates the diffusion of power (2018).…”

Innovation Mirage: The Role of Technological Uncertainty in Military Instability

“…На протяжении 2010-х гг. их внимание фокусировалось на возможных последствиях разработки противоракетной обороны, средств борьбы со спутниками, гиперзвукового оружия, автономных боевых систем, военного применения искусственного интеллекта, вооружений на новых физических принципах (Буренок 2011;Brimley et al 2013;Есин 2015;Кокошин, Балуевский, Потапов 2015;Влияние технологических факторов… 2017;Speier 2017;Klare 2018;Арбатов 2018;Sechser, Narang, Talmadge 2019;Johnson 2019;Horowitz 2019). При этом большинство публикаций концентрировалось на специфике отдельных типов вооружений.…”