As eleições brasileiras de 2014: balanço dos resultados e implicações político-institucionais

Abstract

ResumoEste artigo tem o propósito de realizar um balanço político das eleições de 2014. Para isso, busca responder algumas questões-chave a respeito da situação dos partidos e do sistema partidário brasileiro no momento em que estamos completando 30 anos dessa segunda experiência de democracia competitiva. Que correlação de forças essas eleições expressaram no país? Quais partidos se fortaleceram em cada tipo de disputa? A polarização PT versus PSDB se enfraqueceu no país? Quais as tendências de evolução do sistema partidário? Defendemos o argumento de que, após três décadas de reorganização e estruturação, a dinâmica do sistema partidário brasileiro alcançou um grau razoável de estabilidade, configurando-se ao redor de sete partidos relevantes que vêm dividindo, de maneira ainda mais equânime, os principais postos de poder eletivo. A tendência, portanto, foi no sentido da concentração da representação e do maior equilíbrio entre as forças partidárias relevantes.Palavras-chave: eleições de 2014, partidos políticos, competição política, Brasil.

Between Renewal and Stability: Party System Change from a Multi‐Level Perspective in Brazil (1998–2018)

“…Figure 1 is a boxplot comparing the number of effective parties, that is, the ENEP's rates between the races for the national Chamber of Deputies and the state's assemblies in the past six elections. It demonstrates that the ENEP has steadily increased in Brazil at both levels of government, which contributes to the literature's evidence of party system fragmentation (Braga, 2016; Nascimento, 2018; Peres, Conceição, and Tarouco, 2018; Borges, 2021). It is worth noting, however, that median ENEP values are higher for sub‐national elections than for their national counterparts in all cases.…”

“…Considering the 2014 gubernatorial elections, there was an increase in the dispersion of winners and the number of votes by political party. In this election, nine parties made a governor in at least one state and had a discrepant percentage of votes from state to state (Amaral and Tanaka, 2016; Braga, 2016). The sub‐national variance of 0.645 found for this election illustrates this dispersion by showing that the patterns of party competition in gubernatorial elections were not as homogeneous between the states.…”

“…In contrast, the close election in 2014 between the two parties that had dominated the presidential race until then, i.e., the PT and the PSDB, resulted in these 'mainstream' parties (necessary since the re-democratisation) falling apart in 2018. Braga (2016) points out that the tight margin of votes in the 2014 presidential elections between competing PT and PSDB -a distance of 3.28 percent of votes -spelled the collapse of the electoral cycle controlled by these two political forces. The biggest change for all levels in Brazil occurred in 2018 when the turnover rate in the Chamber of Deputies in this election was 47 percent, proportionally the highest turnover since the election of the Constituent Assembly in 1986.…”